Bitcoin 2026: Debasement Trade or Uncertain Macro Bet?

Several market observers see 2026 as a potential turning point year for Bitcoin. This is due to the continued weakness of the US dollar, which, according to analysts, lost around ten percent of its value last year.

In this environment, Bitcoin is increasingly perceived as a hedge against the progressive devaluation of national currencies.

Bitcoin as an expression of the “debasement trade”

Analysts at the London Crypto Club describe Bitcoin as the clearest current example of the so-called “dollar debasement trade.”

This refers to the theory that expansionary fiscal and monetary policies will erode the purchasing power of the dollar in the long run, benefiting scarce assets. Despite this narrative, Bitcoin is currently trading almost 30% below its all-time high of around $126,000.

Political tailwind ahead of the midterms?

Donald Trump plays a central role in this. Market observers expect the US government to implement economic stimulus measures in the run-up to the midterm elections in November 2026 to support consumption and growth. Such measures could increase liquidity in the short term – an environment that has often favored risk assets like Bitcoin in the past.

Arthur Hayes had already made similar arguments , once again suggesting a very high price target at the beginning of the year. His thesis: currency devaluation and government spending programs could significantly boost Bitcoin.

The supply side is relaxing

In addition to macroeconomic factors, analysts point to changes in market behavior. On-chain data indicates that large investors and long-term holders are currently realizing lower profits. Selling pressure from this group has recently eased, reducing the available supply on the market.

The role of the central bank

A key uncertainty factor remains the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve . Bitcoin has historically been highly sensitive to changes in liquidity. Recent political pressure on the central bank and public tensions with Fed Chair Jerome Powell have added to the nervousness. At the same time, many market participants expect further interest rate cuts in the medium term.

Classification

Whether Bitcoin will actually rise to become the strongest macro asset again in 2026 depends on the interplay of dollar performance, monetary policy, and risk appetite. The arguments for a “debasement trade” are present – ​​however, whether they will translate into rising prices remains to be seen.

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(Featured image by Kanchanara via Unsplash)

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