Bitcoin Forecasts Turn Cautious as JPMorgan Delays $170K Target to 2026

Current Bitcoin forecasts are more cautious than they were in the summer: JPMorgan has set a BTC price target of $170,000 – but not until next year. Crypto promoter Tom Lee also sees “headwinds” at the moment.

The crypto year 2025 is drawing to a close, and the Bitcoin price curve has been fluctuating between $100,000 and $110,000 for days. Price targets of $200,000 per Bitcoin for this year, announced in the summer, now seem unrealistic. This is also reflected in current analyses. JPMorgan, for example, is postponing its expectations for a Bitcoin resurge until 2026, with the bank’s specialists writing that they anticipate “significant upward trends in 6 to 12 months.”

According to JPMorgan, Bitcoin has some catching up to do compared to gold

Then, Bitcoin could expect a rally up to $170,000, the report continues. JPMorgan bases its optimism on the popular comparison of BTC to gold. Bitcoin’s volatility is decreasing, while gold’s is increasing. If this is fairly reflected in the market capitalization, Bitcoin will approach a price of $170,000, according to JPMorgan.

But first, it still needs to digest the ” Black Friday ” on the crypto markets on October 10th. Just under a month ago, BTC and other cryptocurrencies experienced a shock when over $16 billion in open positions on the derivatives markets were liquidated – an all-time record.

Tom Lee: “Headwinds” for Bitcoin can turn into “tailwinds”

Crypto celebrity Tom Lee also considers the Black Friday experience to be a headwind. He adds that the unresolved US government shutdown and uncertainty about whether the Federal Reserve will implement another interest rate cut in December are contributing factors.

Bitcoin is currently proving to be very sensitive, Lee said in a TV interview . But “headwinds can quickly turn into tailwinds once these issues are resolved,” says Lee, chief analyst at Fundstrat. In the short term, however, he believes it will take some time before confidence in Bitcoin returns.

Conclusion: Is the Christmas rally for Bitcoin cancelled?

BTC price predictions are divided in the betting markets. At Polymarket, bets are focused on a year-end low of $90,000, while $120,000 and $130,000 are considered the most likely targets for Bitcoin. This Friday morning, Bitcoin is trading at just over $102,000, almost 20 percent below its all-time high of $126,000 from October.

On Thursday, after six days of trading stagnation, Bitcoin ETFs finally attracted capital again, with $240 million marking a turnaround. Whether this will be enough to give Bitcoin a boost remains to be seen in the coming days. JPMorgan and Tom Lee anticipate a rocky road back to its former strength for Bitcoin. In this context, this might be helpful for you as a spin-off: A widely discussed analysis from this week identified $95,000 as a “critical mark” for BTC, at which near-term future prospects could be determined.

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(Featured image by Kanchanara via Unsplash)

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