Analysts Warn Bitcoin’s Rally May Fade as MicroStrategy Signals Caution and Liquidity Weakens

Bitcoin has managed to hold onto recent gains and continues to trade around $93,000. Bitunix analysts are calling it a “fake breakout.” QryptoQuant is taking a closer look at the Bitcoin company Strategy.

The Bitcoin price curve recently signaled a trend reversal with a significant upward jump

However, BTC has since stagnated at around $93,000. Analysts at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitunix have identified a “fake breakout” in the Bitcoin price curve. They anticipate a “volatile situation” in the short term. Bitunix states that it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will find support and stabilize in the $90,000 to $91,000 range – a rather pessimistic outlook. Data experts at QryptoQuant are already predicting a “bear market,” citing the Bitcoin company Strategy as a key indicator.

At the beginning of the week, Strategy (MicroStrategy) announced significant changes to its Bitcoin strategy. A new $1.44 billion cash reserve is now intended to protect Strategy against BTC devaluation for up to two years, and the company no longer rules out selling Bitcoin in negative scenarios. “Strategy seems to understand that there is a certain probability of a deep or sustained Bitcoin price decline,” writes QryptoQuant regarding Strategy’s new course.

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin company strategy prepares for a “bear market”

The good news is that, for the time being, there is little risk of massive Bitcoin sales from Strategy. However, the company has also recognized that it is currently difficult to finance further BTC purchases through the issuance of MSTR shares. QryptoQuant presents an accompanying chart showing that a year ago, in November 2024, Strategy reached a monthly record with the purchase of 134,500 Bitcoins. This November, only 9,100 BTC were acquired, and so far in December, the figure is a mere 135. This means that Strategy is no longer a “powerful channel” for BTC demand.

CryptoQuant believes the situation suggests that Strategy is already preparing for a prolonged period in which Bitcoin shows no positive momentum. They predict BTC will likely remain at price levels below $70,000 next year, and in the worst-case scenario, the $50,000 mark could come into focus. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju notes on X that almost all Bitcoin blockchain indicators are negative, and without “macro liquidity,” no recovery will be possible.

Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy are currently not considered as BTC buyers

“Macro liquidity” was prominently displayed in Bitcoin ETFs until late summer. However, in November, BTC ETFs experienced a capital outflow of $3.5 billion, and so far in December, they have remained stagnant. A hoped-for US interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on December 10th is not yet a done deal.

And it is also unclear who President Donald Trump will appoint to lead the Fed in early 2026, when current chairman Jerome Powell’s term ends in March. Trump’s economic advisor Kevin Hassett is considered a strong contender in the betting markets, as he would likely avoid conflicts with the White House at the Fed’s helm and readily implement interest rate cuts demanded by Trump.

Conclusion: Is Bitcoin in a weak phase or is the crypto winter coming?

The Bitcoin price curve currently doesn’t indicate a clear direction; the pendulum could swing either way. Arguments that point to the potential withdrawal of Strategy as a major buyer of BTC, and the lack of demand elsewhere, for example in Bitcoin ETFs, should be taken seriously. This makes it clear: BTC prices around $93,000 are probably not the final word for 2026, and ignoring risks would be negligent for Bitcoin investors.

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