Bitcoin sits comfortably above $38,000 at the close of November, settling at highs for the last year and a half. The most popular cryptocurrency has risen almost 130% from the $16,600 it ended last year, although its all-time highs are still far away: in November 2021 it reached $68,990.90.
The resurrection of Bitcoin comes after months of momentum surrounding the US markets regulator’s (SEC) talks with financial companies about the possible approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs. Last week, some reports suggested that the regulator had begun new discussions on the matter with Grayscale, a digital asset company that recently won a legal victory against the SEC in its attempt to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF.
Enthusiasm for the addition of a spot ETF has been building all year, with big managers like BlackRock in the queue, waiting for the green light. Bloomberg Intelligence strategists forecast a 90% chance of US spot ETF approval by January.
According to a recent report from Glassnode, there is significant unmet demand from investors regarding the arrival of this product. The data firm estimates that up to $70 billion in new capital could flow into the Bitcoin market if an ETF is approved. This projection is based on the assumption that 10% of the money currently invested in major stock and bond ETFs would move into a Bitcoin ETF, along with 5% of capital allocated to gold ETFs.
Glassnode suggests that a Bitcoin spot ETF could have comparable impacts to the first US gold ETF launched in 2003. In the following decade, gold prices rose more than 400% in the heat of increased investment demand.
Also helping to raise the price is the low supply of Bitcoins currently on the market. The supply in circulation is extremely low, according to Glassnode, and long-term investors are holding on to their reserves while waiting for prices to continue rising. The number of Bitcoins held in wallets with a minimum spending history recently hit a record high of over 15.4 million.
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Bitcoin technical analysis
From the point of view of technical analysis, Diego Morín, IG analyst, highlights that “the price structure of the cryptocurrency has not changed, since demand (purchases) supported the support of $25,000, an important area in the last months.” This same level was key last June, he remembers, when the market rebounded strongly and managed to regain $30,000.
Likewise, “the price of Bitcoin broke the 161.80% level of the Fibonacci retracement last October, taking as a reference the starting point since November of last year, which translated into a return to $35,000, an area that has been able to sustain in recent weeks,” explains Morín.
Finally, “Bitcoin is trading within an ascending channel, creating increasing lows and, for the moment, holding the support of $35,000, with its sights set on the psychological resistance of $40,000, a price it has not visited since last April 2022,” added the IG expert.
Ángel Cotera, market specialist at BBVA Trader, agrees that the popular cryptocurrency “is heading towards the $40,000 level, because its price is clearly bullish, with first resistance at those levels.”
As for support, “given the sharp declines in this asset, it is difficult to predict,” warns Cotera, “although a first support is established at 36,693 and a second at $35,897. With stop loss at $35,386.”
The ‘halving’ of 2024
Long term, investors should also take into account the next ‘halving’, scheduled for April 2024. The ‘halving’ is a scheduled event that reduces by half the reward that miners receive for validating transactions on the network. Bitcoin.
Each of the three previous halvings was followed by new 12-month highs, so many investors are confident that history will repeat itself. They are given hope, for example, by Standard Chartered Bank, which maintains its forecast that it will reach $100,000 by the end of 2024.
These halvings will continue until no new bitcoins are produced and the coin reaches a final supply of 21 million tokens. There are currently around 19.5 million in circulation.
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First published in ESTRATEGIAS de INVERSION. A third-party contributor translated and adapted the articles from the originals. In case of discrepancy, the originals will prevail.
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