TopRanked.io Weekly Affiliate Digest: What’s Hot in Affiliate Marketing [Bovada Affiliate Program]

Quick Disclosure: We’re about to tell you the Bovada Affiliate Program is pretty great. And we really mean it. Just know that if you click on a Bovada Affiliate Program link, we may earn a small commission. Your choice.

Dear affiliates, I have bad news.

Some of us are currently facing an existential threat. (Maybe even you, but you just don’t know it yet!)

And no, I’m not just saying existential threat to sound dramatic or intelligent.

There really is an existential threat.

But that’s okay — this week, I’m gonna tell you what it is, and how to use it to actually spin a profit.

Affiliate Program

This week’s affiliate crisis (and opportunity) is squarely centered around sportsbooks and the United States (for now). But, it could soon be coming to other countries soon.

So, how are you gonna monetize?

With a sportsbook that pays great commissions, accepts United States residents, but is also international enough that you can keep working with it once the threat/opportunity expands internationally.

Can you think of any sportsbooks that meet those criteria?

I can — Bovada.

So let me introduce you to the Bovada Affiliate Program.

Bovada Affiliate Program — The Product

Not much really needs to be said in this section that hasn’t already been said about Bovada.

After all, a sportsbook’s a sportsbook (more or less), and that’s exactly what you’re going to be promoting when you join the Bovada Affiliate Program.

Oh, Bovada also has a casino and poker side to their business. (But what “good” sportsbook doesn’t?)

The only thing I think is really worth mentioning here — and this is the important bit given the very country-specific phenomenon (for now) that this week’s affiliate opportunity will touch on — is that Bovada is open to residents of the United States… with a few (okay, quite a few) state-based exceptions.

Here’s the list of restricted states, copy-pasted right off Bovada’s FAQ: Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Colombia [sic… think this one’s meant to read Columbia…], Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington DC, and West Virginia.

Theoretically, residents in those states can’t sign up with Bovada.

Also, Bovada offers crypto account funding, which is kinda nice for multiple reasons, including the above (hint, hint).

Bovada Affiliate Program — The Commissions

As you should expect (since we’re featuring them), Bovada’s commissions are exceptionally good.

As a new Bovada affiliate, expect to start out receiving a 25% cut of the net gaming revenue (NGR) your referrals generate. You know, good ol’ fashioned rev share.

Also, that’s a lifetime rev share deal you’ll be getting with Bovada — none of this “first 1/12/whatever” months stuff that lesser affiliate programs try to force on you. Bovada just pays you for the life of your referral, as any good affiliate program should.

After that, as you work your way up the Bovada Affiliate Program ranks (i.e., you generate a bigger NGR each month), Bovada will start to increase your cut, starting at 30% when you cross the $10k mark.

Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous (or simply think a different Bovada commission deal would suit you better), Bovada is totally open to CPA deals. But to get the specifics here, you’re gonna have to reach out to your Bovada affiliate manager and negotiate a little.

Bovada Affiliate Program — Next Steps

That just about covers the nuts and bolts of the Bovada Affiliate Program.

If you want a bit more detail, then head on over to TopRanked.io for our in-depth Bovada Affiliate Program review.

Or, if you know a good thing when you see it, then head here to sign up with the Bovada Affiliate Program today.

Affiliate News Takeaways

Depending on where you look, this week’s biggest news is probably the U.S. government shutdown.

Now, I know I know — most of you probably don’t even care.

But I think you should care.

Stick around, and I’ll show you why you should care.

TL;dr — right now we’re witnessing a giant affiliate opportunity that’s also a giant threat to many affiliates.

Yeah, that’s right. It’s both things all at once — proof that being multiple things at once isn’t just a thing reserved for personalities.

So, why should you, as an affiliate, care about the U.S. government shutdown?

Well, it all starts with a little something something we covered all the way back in our Everygame Affiliate Program review edition.

Prediction markets.

For those of you who’ve somehow managed to miss prediction markets up until now, they basically work like a regular sportsbook. Only, there are a couple of differences.

First, unlike sportsbooks, where it’s the operator who makes the (usually sports-related) market, just about anyone can create a market on just about anything on a prediction market.

Second, unlike sportsbooks, which generally try to “balance” their books by adjusting odds to attract more people to one side of a bet, prediction markets work more like the stock market. You (kinda) buy and sell ‘shares’. You buy “yes” to go long, and “no” to go short.

And that’s pretty much all you need to know for now. So let’s get back on the topic of the day:

What have prediction markets got to do with U.S. government shutdowns?

Well, remember how I said that, with prediction markets, you can make bets on just about anything. Now, check out this headline:

Retail Traders Pile Into Shutdown Bets as Prediction Markets Boom [Bloomberg]

That’s right. People wanting to bet on how long the U.S. government shutdown will last are piling into prediction markets. And that’s adding an additional surge in interest on top of interest that was already surging.

Now, as for why the government shutdown in particular is driving another surge, I’m not really sure. After all, there are a billion and one other things to bet on.

And yes, that includes betting on how many views Mr. Beast’s next video will garner within its first week.

So why the government shutdown in particular?

Well, my best guess is that it isn’t the government shutdown. If you look at the volumes on government shutdown-related bets, they’re not even all that high.

Instead, what might be going on is a bunch of journos dabbling in a little bit of the old correlation-causation fallacy.

I mean, for all we know, maybe the surge is actually because of Southpark.

Yes, Southpark.

Southpark made prediction markets a central theme of last week’s episode, which probably only helped bring further interest to something that was already getting a lot of attention.

So, aside from the fact that they’re surging, what’s so special about prediction markets for affiliates?

Well, for starters, they’re a giant existential threat. If you don’t believe me, then go read this article. The headline:

Kalshi Same-Game Parlays Make $1,762 In Fees On First Day — While $7 Billion Wiped From DraftKings, Flutter Market Caps

Now, I know, I know — the article actually says that in terms of volume, prediction markets didn’t actually take that much from sportsbooks.

But think about it like this — do you really think sportsbook investors wiped out $7 billion worth of value from the likes of DraftKings because they think the full extent of prediction markets’ growth has already been reached?

No, of course not.

Prediction markets are growing like crazy.

So crazy that now Robinhood’s already looking to launch their prediction market product in international markets, which probably won’t be so popular with certain Reddit users…

…but for everyone else, it’ll probably be really popular if the uptake of prediction markets in the U.S. is any indication.

And that’s potentially bad news for us affiliates.

Really bad news.

Why?

Well, if prediction markets start eating into the market share of traditional sportsbooks, then that’s potentially going to eat into your affiliate revenues.

And no, you probably can’t just go and promote prediction markets instead. At this stage, there are no prediction market providers with an affiliate program.

Actually, scratch that. That’s not 100% true.

What I actually meant to say is that there are no prediction market providers who offer an affiliate program worth working with.

If you need proof, just take a look at Robinhood’s commissions and ask yourself if that feels like a good deal or not. Here’s a screenshot of their Post Affiliate Pro page.

See what I mean? $20 CPS commissions feel a bit tight, doesn’t it? Especially when you can get big recurring commissions or much bigger CPA payouts (especially on U.S. referrals) by selling a similar product from another, more traditional provider.

Bovada is one name that comes to mind. (Actually, I think Bovada might be one of the only ones with broad U.S. coverage that pays commissions this good!)

So, where does that leave you, the humble affiliate who just wanted to promote a good ol’ sportsbook and make some decent commissions in the process?

Well, here’s an idea — lean in heavily and embrace prediction markets.

Yes, you read that right.

Maybe the best play is to just start promoting prediction markets.

Why?

To sell sportsbooks.

If you think that sounds like I’m confused, then hear me out.

So, how are we going to use prediction markets to sell sportsbooks?

Well, let’s start with the obvious play.

Arbitrage.

Most of you should have heard of this by now. But, just in case you’re uninitiated, here’s how arbitrage works.

• One sportsbook has team A with Euro odds of 2.03
• Another sportsbook has Team B with Euro odds of 2.02
• You place a bet on each team at these odds and, either way, you win.

Easy right?

Well, not so fast.

If you’re only doing small volumes, yes, this is easy. But sportsbooks generally don’t like this behavior, so if you wanna scale it up to serious dollars, then you’re gonna have some problems. And no, these aren’t in the same “easy to fix” category most life problems are in.

So here’s what you do instead.

Instead of trying to sneak your arbitrage plays under your sportsbooks’ collective radars, you share your arbitrage opportunities with other people.

And, when you share them, you include handy links — links that might just so happen to be your affiliate links.

Cool right?

And here’s the best part — using this whole arbitrage thing, you can use prediction markets as the perfect bait to get people clicking your links.

You just publish a bunch of stuff about “prediction markets arbitrage opportunities” and include a sportsbook you’re promoting as the other half of the arbitrage.

Oh, and there’s another good thing here — because sportsbooks and prediction markets are priced a little differently, these arbitrage opportunities crop up more often than they usually do when just doing inter-sportsbook arbitrage.

This is especially so given the fact that sportsbooks often use data providers as part of their odds setting (i.e., sportsbooks get data fed to them, then, based off of that, they use math to set their odds), while prediction markets are user-set prices. That is, the only thing that influences price action is the number of people lining up to buy/short a market, and the individual convictions of those people.

In other words, there’s gonna be a bunch more arbitrage opportunities here due to differing information flows and efficiencies.

Sweet, right?

But how are you actually going to pull this off? After all, most arbitrage opportunities tend to be short-lived stuff.

Well, here’s an idea — you build a community around exploiting these opportunities, and send “signals” via WhatsApp/Discord/whatever other “instant” communication channel you choose.

And as for how you build this community?

Well, here’s one idea — you do good ol’ content marketing.

That is, you create the definitive guide to exploiting prediction markets for maximum profit and use it as the hook to get people’s attention and get them into your “signals” community.

So what are you going to fill this “how to exploit prediction markets” guide with so that it actually makes people think your community is worth joining?

A bunch more “arbitrage” opportunities, of course.

It’s just, you’re not going to call them arbitrage.

You’re going to use other fancy words borrowed from finance, like “hedging,” “leverage,” and “market making”.

Here, let me get you started with a few ideas.

Idea #1 — Hedging

In a nutshell, hedging is where you offset the risk of one “investment” by taking a position in another “correlated” investment.

Now, I’m not really great with this stuff, so don’t actually go out and do this, but here’s an example.

Let’s say you wanna bet the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl. But you also know that’s kinda a long shot, so you wanna reduce your downside exposure.

Maybe you also have another hairbrained theory that you’re more confident in — that the Chiefs are the only decent AFC team, so if they don’t win, then no one will.

So what do you do?

You back the Chiefs at whoever’s offering the best odds (probably a sportsbook, wink, wink), and you hedge your exposure with a “if the Chiefs bomb out, then at least I’ll get something when an NFC team certainly wins” — a market you’ll probably find on a prediction market.

Idea #2 — Leverage

Prediction markets like Polymarket technically support leveraged betting.

But, they only support it for some markets.

You’re going to teach people how to unlock it for all markets.

Let’s say you place the following bets:

• You go short on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl.
• You go long on the Chiefs to win the AFC.

Here, there’s no scenario where both of these bets can lose. E.g., if the Chiefs lose the AFC, then your short on them winning the Super Bowl pays off by default. And, on the other hand, if they win the AFC, then win the Super Bowl, your long on the AFC win at least paid off.

So why’s this important?

Well, unlike sportsbooks, prediction markets don’t require you to put up collateral for each individual bet. You only need to cover your maximum downside risk. That means that, by placing multiple bets, you can effectively use leverage.

Now, there’s no real sportsbook tie-in here, unfortunately. But that’s not the point. Our little ‘guide’ isn’t about pushing sportsbooks relentlessly — it’s about pushing the appearance of value so people feel compelled to join our “signals” community.

Idea #3 — Market Making

Now we’re getting into the serious business end of things.

Because prediction markets work more like traditional markets and less like traditional sportsbooks, you can engage in a little something called market making.

For those of you who’re unfamiliar with the practice, market makers provide ‘liquidity’ for a market. That is, they buy and sell in large volumes in order to make ‘guaranteed’ profits.

How?

Simple — they keep a balanced book and quote a slightly higher buy price than their sell price. Then, they pocket the spread (what sportsbooks call “vig”).

Now, again, there’s no “quick” sportsbook tie-in here. But there kinda still is.

Basically, you tell people that if they wanna do market making, then they’re going to need a way to hedge their position if their market making goes wrong (it will) and they end up with lopsided exposure (e.g., news breaks and, before they can adjust their quotes, traders hammer one side of the bet).

And that’s where a sportsbook comes in. With a little quick math, they can work out what size bet they’ll need to place at a traditional sportsbook to cover their exposure.

Cool, right?

Takeaway

To wrap this up, here’s what you need to know in a nutshell:

• Prediction markets are growing like crazy.
• Prediction markets are stealing market share from traditional sportsbooks.
• That’s potentially bad news for sportsbook affiliates.
• However, there are ways to use prediction markets to sell sportsbooks.

What I covered above is just the tip of the iceberg. There are plenty more strategies you could use (and plenty more “ideas” for your content if you wanna steal my community-building idea).

But the main takeaway is this — look at what’s going on with prediction markets, and see them for what they are. That is, a threat and an opportunity wrapped into one.

Do with that what you will. Just don’t forget to monetize. The Bovada Affiliate Program has you covered here.

Closing Thought

Since we’re on the topic of governments (U.S. government shutdown) and crises (prediction markets threatening sportsbooks), let’s close this week with a very government-y crisis quote.

Now, to give you a little context, Rahm Emanuel was Whitehouse Chief of Staff when the 2008 GFC hit.

And what he meant by that quote, probably went a little something like this:

• In normal times, people are set in their ways/resist change.
• When a crisis hits, things get destabilized.
• That opens a window of opportunity to change what you couldn’t change during normal times.

And, in a way, this applies to our affiliate opportunity from the news section.

Sure, for anyone who’s not a sportsbook or a sportsbook affiliate, prediction markets aren’t exactly a crisis.

But they are like a crisis. That is, they’re a destabilizing force that is causing some people to change their ways.

• Some people are ditching traditional sportsbooks in favor of prediction markets.
• Other people are picking up betting for the first time.

And that ‘changing of ways’ is precisely the window of opportunity you want to use to push through your agenda — to get more people to sign up with a sportsbook via your affiliate link.

If you don’t have one of those yet (a sportsbook affiliate link), then might I suggest you go signup with the Bovada Affiliate Program for great commissions and U.S. resident acceptance?

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(Featured image by SevenStorm JUHASZIMRUS via Pexels)

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