Cocoa Markets Fall Amid Strong West African Crop Outlook and Weak Demand

Wheat: Wheat closed little changed in Chicago and a little lower in KC last week on some speculative long liquidation and despite positive weekly export sales. USDA is still issuing old reports but those reports have been positive.

World prices turned weaker last week. The FAO raised world production estimates this week. Sovecon now estimates Russian production at 88.6 million tons, up 800,000 tons, due to better yields in Siberia and other areas, but still weak data in the south. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures
Unavaiable today

Corn: Corn was lower and closed near the lows of the week on speculative selling tied to long liquidation and despite the weekly sales report showing strong export demand. Ideas are that demand is less now due to increased competition in the world market. Trends are turning down in the market. The harvest is winding down in all areas of the Midwest.

There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses. Temperatures should average near to above normal this week and there are forecasts for some rain early this week. Oats were a little lower.

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans were a little higher and the products were lower last week on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation that hit the markets later in the week. The early week rally came on reports of strong Chinese buying, but that buying seemed to dry up on Thursday and Friday. The US will have to compete with South America for sales in a diminishing Chinese market.

The Chinese hog herd is being reduced and this means less demand for Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Forecasts call for light precipitation to be seen in the Midwest. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

Rice: Rice was higher last week after making new lows for the move on what appeared to be speculative trading. Ideas are that the market is too cheap and that farmers have sold what needs to be sold for now. The recent selling has been to be relentless and appears tied to the weaker prices in Asia and especially India.

Trends are down in the market. The harvest is over in the delta and Mid South. California is about done with its harvest. Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago. The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil futures were lower last week in sympathy with the price action in Chicago and on fears of increasing production and weakening demand. There are still Indonesian plans to increase the use of Pam Oil in biofuels blends.

There are still ideas of increasing production. The market sentiment overall is turning bearish on ideas of increasing stocks to the market and on some concerns about demand Canola was lower. Trends are mixed on the daily charts.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures:

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

Cotton: Cotton was lower last week. Some traders still hope for some new Cotton demand but as the cash market appears to be quiet. Farmers are also not selling too much due to price. A lack of new Chinese demand has been important and a reason to see lower US prices.

The US harvest is over in most areas and initial yield reports are good. US stocks are higher today after several days of lower values. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: Futures were lower last week and made new lows for the move and the trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. Traders are worried about demand even with lower prices.

FCOJ from Brazil has been subjected to tariffs and those continue for the most part. The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico. Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with occasional showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

Coffee: New York was little changed and London were higher last week and trends are mixed in New York but are turning up in London. Secretary Bessent last week said that certain products will get reduced tariffs soon to help lower prices, but there are still 40% tariffs imposed on Coffee from Brazil. Those are being removed now.

Coffee from Brazil had been subjected to a 50% tariff. Scattered showers are being reported now to improve tree condition in Brazil. Mexico is in good condition, as is Central America. Vietnam has seen too much rain as typhoons hit the country, and big rains are reported in central areas again and are causing flooding and yield and quality concerns.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

Sugar: New York and London were a little lower last week in consolidation trading. There are still ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue. Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong, but the south center harvest is almost over. The prospect of a big global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive with a rise in production in India and Thailand set to increased supplies while global consumption is expected to remain steady.

India plans to allow sugar exports of 1.5 million metric tons in the new season as a decline in the diversion of sugar for ethanol production is expected to leave a larger domestic surplus. China imported 750,000 metric tons of sugar in October, up 39% on the same month last year. The International Sugar Organization forecast last Monday that there would be a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million metric tons in the 2025/26 season, driven by a rise in production.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

Cocoa: New York and London closed lower last week. A big main crop harvest is anticipated in West Africa. Demand concerns in West Africa continue. Light rains mixed with heat in Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions last week signaled a positive outlook for the main crop. There are still reports of increased pro-duction potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.

The cocoa market feels that there is less demand and the lack of cocoa demand is expected to continue. Ivory Coast’s cocoa grind fell 25.4% year-on-year at the start of the 2025/26 season in October to 44,075 metric tons. Cocoa arrivals in ports in top grower Ivory Coast were picking up after a slow start to the season.

A total of about 105,000 cocoa tons were delivered between November 10th and November 16th, up from 94,000 tons in the same week of the previous season. Traders are concerned over poor quality cocoa beans in Ivory Coast and talk that both Ivory Coast and Ghana have stopped marketing beans due to low prices.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

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