Cocoa Prices Drop Amid Speculative Selling and West African Supply Concerns

Wheat: All three Wheat markets closed higher last week as growing and harvesting conditions at home and abroad have improved. Winter Wheat markets were the strongest last week, but Minneapolis had been the stronger market for the previous few weeks. There are still reports that the weather has reduced production potential in Ukraine and Russia and reports of recent dry weather in some parts of the EU and China was a concern, but there has been rains in these areas recently.

Russia is forecasting a large reduction in Wheat production for the coming year. Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, but Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada had been dry. Conditions in the US are now generally good.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

Corn: Corn was lower last week with July the weakest month as forecasts turned hot and dry for at least a few days in the Midwest. Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast into this week after a hot and dry weekend. Warm weather returns in the forecasts for next week. A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and moderate drought extends east in a corridor into the Chicago area. The rest of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were lower.

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans were slightly lower last week, and Soybean Meal was lower while Soybean Oil closed sharply higher. Forecasts for good growing conditions in the Midwest and as cheaper prices reported from Brazil are still being heard, but the Midwest has turned hot for the next few days or longer.

The market could remain under pressure as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Soybean Oil was the upside leader on the news of increased biofuels requirements coming soon to the US petroleum industry.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

Rice: Rice was lower last week but recovered from the lowest levels over the second half of the week. Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice has emerged in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good but too much rain has been reported in southern areas.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil futures were higher last week on news of improved export demand. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Ideas of increasing production and reduced demand are also heard. Canola was lower on speculative selling tied tzo profit taking. Trends are up on the daily charts and are turning up on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures:

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

Cotton: Cotton was a little lower last week. There are still reports of better weather for planting in Texas and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported moderate to poor weekly export sales. Planting conditions remain good in Texas, but it is still too wet in the Delta and Southeast. Planting progress is still a little behind the five year average and condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is off to a good start and a good production there is possible.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: Futures were lower on Friday and for the week and trends are down in the market. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. Production estimates from USDA remain well below those from a year ago.

USDA estimated Florida production up slightly from the previous estimate at 12.0 million boxes, but that is still down 34% from last year. All US production was also a little higher from the previous report, but still down 37% for the year. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

Coffee: New York and London closed lower on Friday and for the week as the market feels supplies are increasing, particularly the Robusta availability in Brazil. London moved to new lows for the move. Prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up.

The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting and is expected to be less this year. Cooxupe said on Wednesday that its farmers had harvested 17.8% of the expected 2025 crop as of June 13, from 26.6% last year.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

Sugar: New York closed lower for the week and at new weekly lows for the move. London closed higher for the week. Ideas of good supplies for the market continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Centre-South Brazil has also been stronger than expected in recent weeks.

Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. The Monsoon has featured above average rains. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. These ideas have helped support Sugar futures.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

Cocoa: Both cocoa markets were sharply lower on Friday and lower for the week on speculative cocoa selling. There are still reports of increased cocoa production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.

The market anticipates good cocoa demand and less cocoa production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Pod counts for the mid crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in cocoa production this season, and current weather is dry for the crops for the coming cocoa crop. Trends are down again in London and in New York. Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast reached 1.540 million tons in May.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

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