Coffee Futures Diverge Amid Brazil Rains and Trade Uncertainty

Wheat: Wheat closed a little lower last week despite a solid weekly export sales report. Traders continue to monitor world wheat prices and think the US needs cheaper prices to compete. Russian sources told wire services that producers there are set to reduce offers and production due to low prices and problems with the government. It remains too dry in Winter Wheat areas and too wet in Spring Wheat areas of Russia, but crop size ideas are expected to increase due to reports of big yields in Spring Wheat growing areas.

A French government report showed plenty of production but lower quality. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains and Canada, but western areas have been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good and Australia estimates that production this year will be high and potentially a record.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures
Unavaiable today

Corn: Corn was a little lower last week as thze coming harvest outweighed a strong week of export sales reported by USDA. Trends are mixed as the crop is maturing and the harvest is starting to expand. There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses.

Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and there are forecasts for scattered showers. Most of the western Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Areas east of the Mississippi River have been very dry for the last month or more. Demand for Corn in world markets remains moderate to strong. Oats were lower.

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and the products were lower last week. The weekly export sales report was not strong. There are still no indications that China was changing its trade policies and on forecasts for no rain to be seen in the Midwest this week. Cool and dry weather has been seen recently in the Midwest. The dry weather could hurt pod fill and bean size. Argentina has removed taxes on Soybeans exports and China immediately bought up to 40 cargoes.

China has not bought US Soybeans yet and traders are worried that demand for the new crop will be a lot less this year. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with cool and mostly dry weather in the forecast. Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

Rice: Rice was lower in quiet trading last week. The market remained in a trading range. The harvest is wrapping up in Texas and southern Louisiana. Harvest is active in Mississippi and Arkansas. Chart trends are mixed on the charts.

The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. Louisiana reports good but not great yields and quality. Texas reports average to below average field and milling yields. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil futures were lower last week with the price action in Chicago and despite ideas of weaker production and strong export demand. Canola was a little lower with Chicago Soybean Oil and on harvest selling. Concerns remain about demand potential.

The Canadian government is moving now to support farmers in the face of the Chinese demand loss and also in the face of the Trump tariffs. Trends are mixed to down on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures:

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

Cotton: Cotton was a little higher last week but remains in a weekly trading range. The US harvest is ready to start in most areas and has been started in some areas. Macro economic factors played a big role as the US government is supporting the economy via reduced interest rates and deficit spending. Commercial buying has been noted near 66.00 basis nearest futures. There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good.

There are still reports of good weather in Texas and into the southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. A few showers have been reported in Texas and the Southeast is also getting showers. Bolls are opening, but the rain does not seem heavy enough to damage the fibers in the bolls. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: Futures were a little lower last week in light volume trading. The market remains in a trading range on the weekly charts. The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico. Trends are mixed. Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with daily rounds of showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.

The poor production potential for the crops comes from early dry weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida and closed near the lows of the week producers to lose trees. Brazil production potential got hurt by cold and dry weather seen earlier in the year.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

Coffee: New York was higher yesterday and London was lower after reports indicated that the weather in Brazil has improved. Rains have been reported in Coffee production areas lately. There are still reduced deliverable coffee supplies for both exchanges as commercials have taken the supplies instead of buying in cash markets.

The lack of deliverable stocks in both coffee markets and the lack of deliveries has supported the futures market. Reductions in deliverable stocks are starting to abate. But, the rains have pushed coffee producers to sell the current inventory no matter the price. Coffee prices in the world have been lower as US coffee demand has waned under the Trump tariff regime. There are hopes that a breakthrough can be seen this week when Trump and Lula meet.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

Sugar: New York and London were a little higher last week and trends are trying to turn up in New York, but remain sideways in London. Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.

The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong. The outlook for cane crops in India and Thailand are in good condition with reports of good rains this year, while Brazilian cane continue to favor producing sugar over ethanol.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

Cocoa: Both markets closed lower in narrow range trading last week as demand concerns in West Africa continue. US demand has been weakening due to the increased prices inside the US from the Trump tariffs and world demand is thought zto be weaker due to higher prices. There are still reports of in-creased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central Amer-ica.

The market feels that there is less demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana and the lack of demand is expected to continue. Ecuador is expected to become the second largest producer of Cocoa, replacing Ghana on the list. Commercials told wire services last week that harvests may get off to a slow start in parts of West Africa, with the main crop season due to start on October 1.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

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