Coffee Prices Decline Amid Rising Supply and Mixed Harvest Outlooks

Wheat: All three Wheat markets closed lower last week as growing and harvesting conditions were very good. Strong yields are reported for crops in HRW and SRW areas. It is hot and dry to the south, but the north saw rains last week to support Spring Wheat development.

There are still reports that the weather has reduced production potential in Ukraine and Russia. Russia is forecasting a large reduction in Wheat production for the coming year. Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, and Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada are generally in good condition.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

Corn: Corn was higher last week and futures could have completed a short term low. Less heat and some showers were reported in the Midwest last week. Rier conditions are expected next week. More moderate temperatures are expected in northern areas next week.

A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and moderate drought extends east in a corridor into the Chicago area, but the drought area is shrinking. The rest of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong but has turned weaker in the last few weeks. Oats were higher in response to the StatsCan stocks and planted area reports.

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and the products were lower last week, with lower priced offers from Brazil in the world market important to the US price action. Forecasts for good growing conditions in the Midwest and as cheaper prices reported from Brazil are still being heard, and the Midwest will turn warm and wet after hot conditions were reported over the weekend.

The market could remain under pressure as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. That could change later this year as the US and China have apparently come to a trade deal.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

Rice: Rice was lower last week in part due to the cease fire between Israel and Iran and in part due to poor demand ideas for US Rice. Weaker Asian prices are a drag on US futures, but the US trade depends much more on South American competition that has actually been offering less. Chart trends are down on the daily charts. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand.

Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice has emerged in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good but too much rain has been reported in southern areas. India is moving sto use Rice in its production of Ethanol. This could keep some Rice from India off the export market and help support prices.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil futures were lower last week despite ideas of improved export demand and weakening production potential. Futures closed near the highs of the week. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around.

Canola was lower and closed at new lows for the move on the weekly charts. Trends are down on the daily charts and are turning down on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures:

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

Cotton: Cotton was a little higher again Friday and for the week as the weather remains stressful for new crop development. Trends are turning up in the market. There are still reports of better weather for planting in Texas and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported moderate to poor weekly export sales. Planting conditions remain good in Texas, but it is still too wet in the Delta and Southeast.

It has been hot in most areas. Planting progress is still a little behind the five year average and condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is off to a good start and a good production there is possible. Demand ideas got a lift with the cease fire between Israel and Iran and as the White House announcement made on Friday claiming trade deals were in place with China and almost done with 10 other countries.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: Futures were lower Friday and closed at new lows for the move on the daily and weekly charts. Trends are turning down. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. Production estimates from USDA remain well below those from a year ago.

USDA estimated Florida production up slightly from the previous estimate at 12.0 million boxes, but that is still down 34% from last year. All US production was also a little higher from the previous report, but still down 37% for the year. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

Coffee: Both coffee markets closed lower last week. Reports of colder temperature in Brazil growing areas are still around but the cold has done little or no damage. Coffee prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as coffee supplies available to the market have ticked up.

The Brazil Robusta coffee harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its coffee harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica coffee harvest is starting to expand and is expected to be less this year as news reports indicate that many cherries have fallen from the trees.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

Sugar: New York was lower last week but London closed higher. Ideas of good supplies for the market continue and have been responsible for the price weakness. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Centre-South Brazil has also been stronger than expected in recent weeks.

Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. The Monsoon has featured above average rains but recent rains have been less in India, especially in southern areas. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

Cocoa: Both markets were higher last week. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Pod counts for the mid crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production this season, and current weather is has seen increased rain for the crops for the coming crop.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

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