Coffee Prices Dip Amid Ongoing Supply Concerns and Harvest Updates

Wheat: Wheat markets closed higher last week. There are still reports that cold weather had created frosts in Ukraine and Russia and reports of dry weather in the EU and China. Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, but Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada have been dry and cold. Some rain was seen in the northern Great Plains last week.

Temperatures should be warmer in most growing areas this week. Chart trends are mixed. The export sales report showed strong demand for new crop Wheat. Enough Wheat has always been available to the market and demand for US Wheat in export markets has been poor. Dry outlooks for the Black Sea regions are still around. It is hot and dry in important parts of the EU and China. Overall demand for world Wheat has been weak.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

Corn: Corn was higher last week, with old crop months higher on another week of strong export sales and new crop months slightly higher on ideas of good weather conditions for the Corn Belt. Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast for the coming week after a cold week last week.

Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong with sales and shipments of above 1.1 million tons in the latest reporting week. It is warmer and drier in much of the Midwest and planting progress is expected. USDA should also release its first condition report for the crop with very high ratings expected by the trade. Oats were higher.

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and the products were a little higher last week. The market could turn lower as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Warmer temperatures and drier conditions are expected this week after a cold and wet late week last week.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

Rice: Rice closed higher and began to turn chart trends up on the weekly charts. The trends are still turning up on the daily charts as well in this market. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher.

Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is planted in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good so far by private sources and USDA.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil futures were a little lower last week. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Ideas of increasing production and reduced demand are also heard.

The Ringgit was stronger to help limit gains. Chart trends are down. Canola was higher. Trends are turning up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been good for planting in the Prairies but it is too dry in some areas.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures:

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

Cotton: Cotton was a little higher last week after a week of choppy trading. Slower than expected planting progress shown in the USDA reports released last week and the reports should show slower progress this week as well. The weekly export sales report showed below average demand.

There are still reports of better weather for planting in the southern US and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported poor weekly export sales. Planting conditions remain good. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week, and farmers are in the fields. More showers are in the forecast for the Great Plains. It has turned drier in the Delta and Southeast. Planting progress is now behind the five year average and conditions of the crops should be good.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: Futures were higher last week and trends are turning up in the market. USDA adjusted US and Florida production slightly higher than in production estimates in its recent reports. Production estimates remain well below those from a year ago. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. A tight market and higher prices should remain a feature for futures traders.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

Coffee: New York and London were lower last week. Trends turned down on the coffee charts with the price action late in the week. Coffee prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before.

Prices are still very high overall and reflect the report of tight coffee supplies and the coffee production concerns in Latin America for Arabica production. The Brazil Robusta coffee harvest continues and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its coffee harvest. The Brazil Arabica coffee harvest is starting and is expected to be less this year.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

Sugar: Both markets were lower last week and closed near the lows of the week on ideas that the market will move to a surplus situation in the coming year. Ideas of good supplies and less demand continue. China has been a buyer with cheaper prices to help provide some support. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and the harvest has been slower but is expected to be faster now amid drier conditions.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

Cocoa: Both markets closed lower last week with a lot of the selling appearing on Friday. There are still reports of increased flows of Cocoa from Nigeria and reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good de-mand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana.

Early pod counts for the 2025/26 main crop sug-gested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production next season. Mid crop counts have not been strong and here have been concerns that current dry conditions will hurt production potential. Trends are mixed in London and in New York. Demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Demand ideas have been under pressure on the high prices currently seen for Cocoa due to bad production in West Africa.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

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(Featured image by Mark Daynes via Unsplash)

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