Global Coffee Prices Fall Amid Tariffs and Harvest Developments

Wheat: Wheat was lower last week despite the news of a relatively strong weekly export sales report and weaker than expected yield estimates from the Spring Wheat tour of the Dakotas. The ztour estimate was for 49 bushels per acre, down fzrom 59 lastz year. Ideas of solid harvest progress and good yields are still around and are forcing the selling. Harvest conditions for Winter Wheat appear to be good in the US and Spring Wheat development is currently good.

Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. Canada could still produce an average to above average crop. Russia is still being watched for dry weather that has so far hurt yields and Ukraine is watched for the same reason and because of the war that could destroy some fields. Russian Black Sea prices have been firming as producers are not making sales and are looking for higher prices to offset yield losses. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures
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Corn: Corn was lower last week on the forecasts for improving weather for the Midwest. The export sales report was strong when the current crop year and the next crop year sales were combined. Temperatures should stay warm to hot for the next couple of days, but then cooler temperatures should return. Rain is expected with the cooler temperatures. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Yield estimates of 186 bushels per acre are frequently heard. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were lower.

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower last week and Soybean Oil was higher as good growing conditions continue in the Midwest. Temperatures should turn cooler later this week after some more hot days early in the week.

There should be some showers around as well. Prices are now reported to be higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

Rice: Rice was higher on follow through buying from the news of a trade deal with Japan that is reported to include better access to that market for Rice. Chart trends are still mostly down on the daily charts. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.

New crop harvesting has started in Louisiana with reports of good but not great yields and quality. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is heading in most growing areas now and harvest has started near the Gulf Coast.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil futures were higher last week despite weaker demand reports from private sources. Amspec estimated esports so far this month at 896,404 tons, down 15% from last month. There was talk that India will soon be buying a lot with festivals coming soon. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around.

Canola was a little higher last week. Trends are mixed to up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures:

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

Cotton: Cotton was a little lower last week in narrow range trading. There are still reports of hotter and drier weather in West Texas. There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good. Export sales were once again on the weak side last week.

There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. It is starting to turn dry in west Texas again, however. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: Futures were higher again last week on speculative buying, but selling seen on Friday erased most of the gains. News that President Trump will impose 50% tariffs on Brazil is still supporting prices. Brazil is the major exporter of FCOJ and sells a lot into the US. Trends are up. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers.

This could change in the next few weeks as hot weather is expected. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. Neilsen said on Friday that prices for a gallon of Orange Juice at the retail level was estimated at 11.68, up 16.5% for the calendar year and 20% from the same month a year ago.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

Coffee: New York and London were lower last week with Robusta more available to the market and with Brazzil looking for new markets not in the US for its Coffee due to the US tariffs imposed on coffee imports from Brazil. Arabica has been weakening also on the current good weather in Brazil.

Coffee prices had been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up, but that has changed in the US with the tariffs. Much less Coffee from Brazil is now expected to enter the US coffee market. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its coffee harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is near the end and is expected to be less this year.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

Sugar: Both markets were lower last week on ideas of a potential to greatly increase Sugar demand inside the US with the changes to Coke, but as ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions.

Production in Centre-South Brazil has also been strong. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

Cocoa: New York and London were higher last week as futures rallied away from lows set by news of weakening demand from the the poor grind data from Europe and Asia. The North American grind showed a small reduction. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.

The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop despite mainly below-average rain in most of the main growing regions last week.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

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