Cotton Prices Inch Up Amid Mixed Planting Conditions and Demand Signals

Wheat: All three Wheat markets closed higher despite forecasts for improved growing conditions at home and abroad. There are still reports that the weather has reduced production potential in Ukraine and Russia and reports of dry weather in some parts of the EU and China. Russia is forecasting a large reduction in Wheat production for the coming year.

Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, but Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada have been dry. Some rain was seen in the northern Great Plains last week and wetter and warmer conditions are now forecast. It is too wet in the Delta and Southeast. Overall demand for world Wheat has been weak.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

Corn: Corn was a little lower last week despite ideas of strong demand and less improvement in crop conditions than was anticipated by the trade. July lost to December on the spreads and is now trading under December after trading 35 higher just a few months ago. Forecasts for improved growing conditions in the Midwest through this weekend were a reason to sell.

Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast for this week, although temperatures were a little below normal over the weekend. A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and moderate drought extends east in a corridor into the Chicago area. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and it is still too wet in the eastern and southern parts. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were a little higher.

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans were higher and Soybean Meal was lower last week. Forecasts for good growing conditions in the Midwest and as cheaper prices reported from Brazil are still being heard. The market could remain under pressure as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums.

Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Warmer temperatures and drier conditions are expected this week after a cold and wet week last week. A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and moderate drought extends east in a corridor into the Chicago area. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and it is still too wet in southern and eastern areas.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

Rice: Rice was higher last week and at new weekly highs for the mover. Chart trends are up on the daily charts. There is still a lot of speculative buying seen in the market that is thought to be mostly short covering.

The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice has emerged in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good so far by private sources and USDA.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil futures were a little higher last week after trading in a narrow range all week. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Ideas of increasing production and reduced demand are also heard. Canola was a little higher last week after a rebound from lower prices on Friday.

Trends are mixed to up on the daily charts and mixed on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures:

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

Cotton: Cotton was a little higher on Friday and for the week on some positive economic data released by the US. Forecasts for a major rain event for Texas next week are still around to limit upside potential. There are still reports of better weather for coton planting in Texas and on cotton demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported moderate to poor weekly cotton export sales.

However, Gap stores reported strong earnings and said it would greatly increase its use of US Cotton in its clothing. Planting conditions remain good in Texas, but it is still too wet in the Delta and Southeast. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week, and farmers are in the cotton fields. It has turned drier in the Delta and Southeast.

Cotton planting progress is now behind the five year average and condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is off to a good start and a good cotton production there is possible. The Monsoon is paused right now but has featured early and above average rains so far.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: Futures were about unchanged last week and trends are still mixed in the market. Trading has been choppy this week. Production estimates from USDA and private sources remain well below those from a year ago. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. A tight market and higher prices should remain a feature for futures traders.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

Coffee: New York was higher and London was lower last week. However, a big rally was seen on Friday that failed, and this could be an indication of a top. Prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest.

The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting and is expected to be less this year, although maybe not as bad as originally feared. Colombia produced 819,000 60-kg bags of washed arabica coffee in May, down 27% from 1,120,000 bags in 2024, the National Coffee Federation said. Vietnam exported 813,000 tons of coffee in the January-May period, down 1.8% from last year.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

Sugar: Both markets were lower last week as ideas of good supplies for the market continue to be heard. China has been a buyer with cheaper prices to help provide some support. There were reports of drier weather in center south Brazil and the harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season.

The Monsoon has featur3ed above average rains. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners cud increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. Petrobras has cut gasoline prices this week for the first time since 2023 and ethanol production could be affected due to lower prices.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

Cocoa: Both markets closed higher last week in speculative trading and a low has formed on the daily charts despite reports of increased availability of Cocoa to the market. There are still reports of in-creased flows of Cocoa from Nigeria and reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.

The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Early pod counts for the 2025/26 main crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production next season, but current weather is good for the crops. Trends are mixed to up in London and in New York.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

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(Featured image by Emma Dau via Unsplash)

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