After the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the USA, the crypto industry hopes that Ethereum (ETH) will also come to classic exchanges in this way. But does the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) agree? Experts disagree.
It ultimately took around ten years until the US Securities and Exchange Commission finally approved Bitcoin ETFs for the first time on January 10th . Now the eyes are turning to possible Ethereum ETFs, with which the number two cryptocurrencies could also appeal to new investors. The SEC has received various applications and the specialist portal “ The Block ” has asked market participants about their assessments.
Find out when analysts believe the first Ethereum ETFs will be approved by the SEC and find the latest business news of the day with our companion app Born2Invest.
There is widespread agreement that there is demand for Ethereum ETFs
This is expressed, for example, by the application by the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock, which caused a short-term price jump for Ethereum (ETH) in November.
But for this BlackRock Ethereum ETF application, the SEC announced yesterday that it would extend its decision deadline until May 10th. In order for the SEC to give the “green light”, it must first decide to classify Ethereum as a non-security, says the major bank JPMorgan. That’s why the chances of getting Ethereum ETFs soon are less than 50 percent.
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of the investment firm SkyBridge Capital, also remains skeptical about Ethereum ETFs. When approving Bitcoin ETFs, the SEC emphasized BTC’s special role among cryptocurrencies and made it clear that it continues to consider most altcoins to be securities. This prevents an Ethereum ETF for the time being, says Scaramucci.
Matt Kunke, analyst at crypto company GSR Markets, is more optimistic. He is tipping 75 percent with an OK from the SEC for Ethereum ETFs in May. Because if the SEC fails, it will be taken to court by applicants like BlackRock and will have to accept defeat.
Matt Hougan from Bitwise points to the history of Bitcoin ETFs. Bitcoin Future ETFs also initially received approval there. Ethereum Future ETFs have been around in the US since last summer. According to Hougan, the SEC’s next logical step would be to no longer deny approval to Ethereum ETFs based on spot price.
In the approval process for Bitcoin ETFs, two experts from the business news agency Bloomberg shined with precise forecasts and background information. Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart are a little more cautious about Ethereum ETFs. Balchunas believes there is a 75 percent chance of a “yes” from the SEC this year. Seyffart, on the other hand, only wants to bet on a 60 to 65 percent probability for Ethereum ETFs this year.
Conclusion: Ethereum ETFs are not a sure-fire success in the USA
The approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC was a hanging game until the last minute and was a close vote of three to two in the board of directors. This is also why Jaret Seiberg from the investment bank TD Cowen thinks that the SEC will first monitor the development of Bitcoin ETFs.
Ethereum ETFs are not a priority for the SEC and a decision will likely be postponed until after the US elections in November, Seiberg predicts. Even though the crypto industry is longing for Ethereum ETFs as soon as possible, Wall Street is much more cautious when predicting the timing.
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