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Moroccan Markets Steady as Investors Await Central Bank Decision

Morocco’s money and bond markets remain stable amid investor anticipation of Bank Al-Maghrib’s September decision. Liquidity and rates show little change, reflecting prudent monetary management and easing inflation. Modest Treasury activity and investor preference for short-term maturities dominate. Private issuance is muted, highlighting a cautious, wait-and-see stance until greater policy clarity emerges in early autumn.

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As investors scrutinize Bank Al-Maghrib’s next monetary policy decision, expected in September, the money and bond markets are evolving in a climate of relative stability.

In its latest Fixed Income Weekly report, BMCE Capital Global Research (BKGR) presents a picture marked by relative stability in the money and bond markets, in a wait-and-see economic environment. “The average bank liquidity deficit has stabilized at -135.7 billion dirhams (MMDH), representing a near stagnation (+0.05%) compared to the previous week,” notes BKGR, confirming a phase of temporary equilibrium on the monetary front.

Central banks’ use of 7-day advances declined over the period, from 53.4 billion to 48.55 billion dirhams, before being revised to 49.49 billion for the current week. BKGR specifies that Bank Al-Maghrib is expected to slightly increase the pace of its interventions on the money market in the coming days, which reflects prudent management in the face of a still uncertain economic environment.

The interbank weighted average rate (WAR) remained anchored at 2.25%, stable both on a rolling week and a rolling month basis. The MONIA (Moroccan Overnight Index Average) rate, a short-term benchmark indicator, also remained at around 2.208%. This situation reflects, according to BKGR, “calibrated liquidity management by the Central Bank, in a context of easing inflationary pressures.”

Modest public fundraising, concentrated on the 2-year maturity

On the primary market, the Treasury’s activity was limited. The weekly fundraising reached only 2 billion dirhams, or 28% of the amount initially offered. BKGR emphasizes that this fundraising was concentrated exclusively on the 2-year maturity, with a cut-off rate set at 2.2483%, down 1.9 basis points compared to the last comparable auction.

This moderate decline in primary rates reflects the Treasury’s prudence in its debt strategy, in line with the local and international environment. “In a context of easing inflationary pressures and fiscal consolidation, the bond market continues its adjustment,” analyzes BKGR.

Investors positioned for the short term

On the secondary market, the evolution of rates confirms this trend towards stability. Variations are minimal, an increase of 0.16 bp on the 13-week line, 0.10 bp on the 10-year line, and a slight easing of 0.87 bp on the 5-year line. The yield curve thus remains relatively flat, illustrating an increased appetite among investors for short maturities.

BKGR notes on this subject that “investors are favoring short maturities, showing a certain caution in the face of uncertainties from the international scene, while local expectations lack visibility in relation to the next decision of the Central Bank expected in September.”

The report also indicates the absence of notable transactions in the private debt segment. No issues of financing company bills (BSF), treasury bills (BT), or corporate bonds were recorded during the period. The same observation applies to certificates of deposit (CD), highlighting a general wait-and-see attitude among private issuers.

A market under observation before the start of the school year

Mid-July 2025 is characterized by a climate of relative stability on the Moroccan monetary and bond markets, punctuated by marginal adjustments and a tactical positioning of financial players in favor of the short term.

BKGR concludes its analysis by emphasizing that “local expectations remain suspended on the next decision of the Central Bank, expected in September.” Until then, the market is expected to maintain this cautious profile, away from significant risk-taking.

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(Featured image by Yashowardhan Singh via Unsplash)

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First published in LES ECO.ma. A third-party contributor translated and adapted the article from the original. In case of discrepancy, the original will prevail.

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Helene Lindbergh is a published author with books about entrepreneurship and investing for dummies. An advocate for financial literacy, she is also a sought-after keynote speaker for female empowerment. Her special focus is on small, independent businesses who eventually achieve financial independence. Helene is currently working on two projects—a bio compilation of women braving the world of banking, finance, crypto, tech, and AI, as well as a paper on gendered contributions in the rapidly growing healthcare market, specifically medicinal cannabis.