Rice on the Rise: Weekly Highs Signal Bullish Momentum Ahead

Wheat: The markets were lower last week on reports of deteriorating price in Russia and improved growing conditions in the US. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of weaker offers in Russia were negative for prices. The rains are falling and will allow Wheat farmers in the US to plant the Winter crops under good conditions.

Russian export offers were under pressure all week. Cash markets in Russia were lower as production estimates remain lower and as demand has waned. Ideas are that Russian exporters are trying to maintain export volumes at the expense of price.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

Corn: Corn closed lower last week, but strong buying emerged on Friday as the US harvest wraps up and as demand remains strong. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong, but the US Dollar has also turned strong and has hurt demand ideas. Oats were a little lower last week. The Corn harvest is almost over and yield reports in general have been strong.

It has been very dry in the Midwest to promote the very active harvest progress and this week looks to feature off and on showers over the middle of the week. The harvest will be complete in two weeks or less. Corn is being harvested with dry grain. The Corn is often well below 12% moisture level and this could cost some yield at the end of the day. Crop conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina with reports of ample moisture in southern Brazil and report of improving moisture levels in Argentina.

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and the products were lower last week as Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago. Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods.

Farmers have focused on Soybeans harvest but now are almost done and are almost done with Corn as well. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Central and northern Brazil rains will continue as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

Rice: Rice closed higher last week and at new weekly highs. The trends are still turning up on the rice charts. The US Dollar was higher, and this did not help rice demand ideas. Lower Asian rice prices are still reported. Brazil rice prices remain strong and well above US rice prices.

The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year, but the rice harvest is over now and the rice crops are being stored. Increased producer selling interest is likely the farther the rice market moves above 1500 January.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil was a little lower last week. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. The private surveyors have indicated that exports have been weaker so far this month. Canola was a little lower along with other vegetable oils and oilseeds markets. The harvest is winding down in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures:

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

Cotton: Cotton was lower last week on the stronger US Dollar. Trends are down in this market. China moved to lower interest rates again and there are hopes this move will help restart the economic engine there. Real estate and domestic consumption of goods and services has been the big problem there. Moves to boost consumer buying are hoped for soon. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved but still rather low US production in the coming year.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: FCOJ closed lower last week on the roll from November to January contracts, but still finished near the highs of the week at the close on Friday. There is a threat that current tropical storm Sara could become a hurricane and move into Florida. The storm was located in the western Caribbean Sea on Friday.

The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now. Rain is expected this week.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

Coffee: New York and London were higher last week even as the US Dollar continued to move higher. Both markets closed at new highs for the move. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil and Vietnam on weather induced short crops continue. There is also a lot of rain reported now in Vietnam to slow harvest activities there.

The chart trends are up again in both markets. The harvest in Vietnam is active, but selling has been slow. Rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas. There are now reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

Sugar: New York and London closed lower last week. Unica released new center south Brazil produc-tion data on Tuesday, and it was 1.785 million tons, about 24.3% less than last year but stronger than trade expectations. The Brazil rains have kept the harvest and crushing pace down but could provide a boost to production for next year.

Trends are mixed to down in both markets. Harvest progress is ac-tive in Brazil. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. It is also wet in Brazil, and this has affected harvest progress. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that de-stroyed crops in some areas.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

Cocoa: Both markets closed higher last week and at new highs for move. Chart trends are up in both markets. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very wet in West Africa lately and this is bringing con-cerns that pod disease could develop.

Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on the overall improved weather in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Arrivals at Ivory Coast ports are no estimated at 455,000 tons, up 30% from last year. The Ivory Coast government has now reduced contract offers by about 40% on worries about less production due to too much rain.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

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