Sub-Saharan Africa: IMF Forecasts Growth of 3.8% in 2024

Growth in sub-Saharan African countries should increase from 3.4% in 2023 to 3.8% in 2024, then reach 5% in 2025, revealed Monday in Abidjan, Luc Eyraud, director of regional studies at the International Monetary Fund. (IMF)

Speaking at a conference held at the headquarters of the Ivorian Ministry of Finance, Eyraud stressed that almost two thirds of the countries concerned in this region should expect increasing growth, including Niger, which is expected to record this year the most significant growth in sub-Saharan Africa.

GDP in sub-Saharan Africa could reach 10.4% according to IMF

The international institution forecasts that its real gross domestic product (GDP) could reach 10.4% at the end of 2024, which can be explained in particular by its income from oil exploitation. Referring also to the decision of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, members of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), to withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Eyraud , whose comments were relayed by the media, estimated that the impact was “limited” for the moment.

“The AES countries have decided to leave ECOWAS, but not the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). Their departure from ECOWAS raises questions of uncertainty and the perception of investors who may have difficulty distinguishing between the commercial trade zone that is ECOWAS and the single currency zone that is the WAEMU. There will be a disruption of trade and less significant disruptions to the flow of individuals,” he indicated.

Stressing that the IMF was for integration, he noted that after ten years of continuous increase, the debt of sub-Saharan Africa had stabilized at 60% of GDP and should follow a downward trend, thanks to the recovery observed global economy and the serious budgetary adjustment policies carried out by the countries of the region.

Eyraud indicated that these policies had, among other things, made it possible to reduce the median inflation rate from almost 10% in November 2022 to around 6% in February 2024 in the zone. The IMF official, on the other hand, affirmed that Côte d’Ivoire had high growth potential in the region.

“From 6.2% last year, Ivory Coast’s real GDP should stand at 6.5% this year, driven by its agriculture and revenues from the three cycles of exploitation of the gas and oil field. Whale,” he said.

“However, Côte d’Ivoire must improve its resilience, by equipping itself with climate resilience tools and policies. Ivorian debt, representing 57% of its GDP at the end of 2023, is at moderate risk and Côte d’Ivoire issued, last January, two Eurobonds, worth 2.6 billion US dollars, to balance its liquidity and solvency ratios. Its debt ratio should fall to represent 53% of its GDP by 2027,” he estimated.

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(Featured image by David_Peterson via Pixabay)

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First published in LES ECO.ma. A third-party contributor translated and adapted the article from the original. In case of discrepancy, the original will prevail.

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