Sugar Market Rises Amid Strong Supply and Favorable Crop Conditions

Wheat: Wheat was higher last week on ideas of solid harvest progress and good yields and on a neutral weekly export sales report. Harvest conditions for Winter Wheat appears to be good in the US and Spring Wheat development is good. Rains have been good in the northern Greasy Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential. Canada could still produce an average crop. Russia is still being watched for dry weather that could hurt yields and Ukraine is watched for the same reason and because of the war that could destroy some fields. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

Unavaiable today

Corn: Corn was lower last week and got no help on Friday from the USDA WASDE reports. USDA cut its production estimated slightly but kept a year on year increase in ending stocks levels intact. The weather forecasts remained cooler this week.

Reduced heat and some showers are expected in the Midwest this week, but temperatures could turn warmer this weekend with more wet weather possible early next week. A moderate drought is seen near the Chicago area, but the drought area is shrinking. The rest of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were higher

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher last week as good growing conditions continue in the Midwest. That could change this week as hot weather is in the forecast. Soybean Oil was lower after making new highs for the move. Lower priced offers from Brazil in the world market are still important to the US price action.

The market could remain under pressure as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

Rice: Rice was lower last week in light volume trading on low weekly export sales. USDA decreased production estimates but also cut back on demand estimates in its monthly WASDE report. Ending stocks were up 0.6 million cwt to 34.6 million. Weaker Asian prices are still around and are still a drag on US futures. South America has been offering less volume and at lower prices. Chart trends are still mostly down on the daily charts.

The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is heading in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good and the ratings by USDA are above last year.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil futures were higher last week in sympathy with the price action in Soybean Oil. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was higher last week. Trends are mixed to up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures:

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

Cotton: Cotton was a little higher again yesterday as futures continue to slowly rally on reported fund and other speculator short covering despite export hopes that remain less and as growing conditions are generally good and weaker export sales. The USDA WASDE reports released a week ago showed increased ending stocks from increased production and unchanged demand. Export sales were once again on the weak side.

There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. It is starting to turn dry in west Texas again, however. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: Futures were higher last week. News that President Trump will impose 50% tariffs on Brazil still resonated in the market. Brazil is the major exporter of FCOJ and sells a lot into the US. Trends are up. USDA estimated Florida oranges production at 12.3 million boxes, up 3 million from the last report.

The production estimates had little effect on the trade. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. The weather so far this year is improved with scattered showers adding to soil moisture and helping with tree health.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

Coffee: New York was higher and London was lower last week, with London weakening as Robusta is more available to the market. President Trump’s tariffs announced for Brazil products sold in the US was blamed for the rally. Prices had been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up, but that has changed in the US with the tariffs.

The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting to get near the end and is expected to be less this year.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

Sugar: Both markets were higher last week, with the best gains seen in New York and as the weather remains generally good around the world for crops. Ideas of good sugar supplies for the market continue and have been responsible for the recent price weakness. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions.Sugar cane production in Centre-South Brazil has also been stronger than expected in recent weeks.

Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. China imported 420,000 metric tons of sugar in June, bringing the cumulative total for the year-to-date to 1.04 million tons, down 19.7% from the same period last year.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

Cocoa: New York and London were lower last week and closed at new lows for the move. It was a gap and go day for both markets in response to weaker European and Asian grind data. The North American grind showed a small reduction on Friday. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop despite mainly below-average rain in most of the main growing regions last week.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

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(Featured image by Daniel Kraus via Unsplash)

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