Global Sugar Markets Dip Amid Brazil’s Rain Delays and Future Supply Uncertainty

Wheat: The markets were lower last week on forecasts for very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of weaker offers in Russia. The rains are falling and will allow Wheat farmers to plant the Winter crops. Little to no rain has been a problem with Winter Wheat planting in the US but that is starting to change.

Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Both areas could get better rain in the next two weeks. Cash markets in Russia were lower as production estimates remain lower and two regions have been declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

Corn: Corn closed a little lower last week as the US harvest wraps up and as demand remains strong. The weekly export sales report showed less sales from last week, but the sales were still strong. There was a new demand announcement made Friday that Mexico bought over 781,000 tons and the demand in recent weeks has been very strong. Oats were higher.

The harvest is winding down but is still active and yield reports in general have been strong. It has been very dry in the Midwest to promote the very active harvest progress gut rain is forecast for much of his week in the Midwest. The harvest will be complete in two weeks or less. Corn is being harvested with dry grain. The Corn is often well below 12% moisture level and this could cost some yield at the end of the day. Crop conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina with reports of ample moisture in southern Brail and report of improving moisture levels in Argentina.

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans were a little lower and Soybean Meal was lower last week as demand news was seen and on ideas that the US government is about to announce new limits on biofuels production that could greatly increase the demand for Soybean Oil. Soybean Meal was hurt on spreads against Soybean Oil.

Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods.

Farmers have focused on Soybeans harvest but now are almost done and are moving through Corn. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Rains are now in the forecast for much of this week. Central and northern Brazil rains will continue as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

Rice: Rice closed lower last week and trends are now down on the charts. The US Dollar was higher and this hurt demand ideas. Lower Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices.

The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. The harvest is over for most US producers and yield reports have had a wide range from poor to good. Export demand was not strong last week.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil was higher last week in reaction to strong monthly export news. AmSpec said exports were 1.5812 million tons in October, up 13.7% from the previous month.

There are ideas of weaker production to go along with the reports of good demand. Canola was lower, but support came from Soybean Oil on ideas that the US government will soon increase demand for biofuels and therefore vegetable oils.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures:

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

Cotton: Cotton was higher on Friday in recovery trading, but lower for the week as export demand remains weak. The export sales report showed improved sales, but the sales were still down overall. Trends are mixed in this market.

China moved to lower interest rates again and there are hopes this move will help restart the economic engine there. Real estate has been the big problem there. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: FCOJ closed higher last week and the spot November contract was sharply higher to post a new high and new high close for the move. Trends are mixed to up in this market as the market remains short juice for delivery. USDA cut Florida oranges production to 15 million boxes, from 18 million in its previous report and 20 million last year.

The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now. Rain is expected this week.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

Coffee: New York and London were lower last week on reports of reduced offers from Brazil and Vietnam on weather induced short crops. The harvest in Vietnam is starting again with about 5% of the crop collected. A major storm hit Vietnam over the previous weekend but apparently caused little in the way of damage or loss to crops. The chart trends are mixed in both markets as the harvest in Vietnam is more active.

Strong harvest activity is expected to start in Vietnam in November. The demand for Vietnamese Coffee is reported to be less right now and this has been a big problem for bullish traders. Rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas but as crop losses are still a good possibility in Brazil and Vietnam. There are now reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions. Brazil yields have been a little less so far.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

Sugar: New York and London collapsed on Friday and closed lower last week despite reports of too much rain in Brazil. The rains have kept the harvest and crushing pace down but could provide a boost to sugar production for next year. Trends are still sideways in both sugar markets but are trying to turn up again. Sugar cane harvest progress is active in Brazil and growing conditions are much improved in India and Thailand.

Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial, and mills are expecting strong crops of sugar cane. It is also wet in Brazil, and this has affected harvest progress. Sugar supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months. Total Brazil sugar production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

Cocoa: Both markets closed higher last week. Reports of better harvest conditions in West Africa have helped push differentials lower, but it has been wet there and Ghana now estimates production this year at 650,000 tons from 700,000 tons previously. Producers in Ghana are protesting against Cocobod and claim that the authority has been unfair to them.

Producers there and in Ivory Coast have been fighting to much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. An Ivory Coast government official said that the country could produce 10% more Cocoa this year although he noted that it has been very wet recently and yields could be affected. It has been very wet in West Africa lately and this is bringing concerns that pod disease could develop. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on the overall improved weather in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast reached 285,000 tons by Oct. 27.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

__

(Featured image by pasja1000 via Pixabay)

DISCLAIMER: This article was written by a third party contributor and does not reflect the opinion of Born2Invest, its management, staff or its associates. Please review our disclaimer for more information.

This article may include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements generally are identified by the words “believe,” “project,” “estimate,” “become,” “plan,” “will,” and similar expressions, including with regards to potential earnings in the Empire Flippers affiliate program. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks as well as uncertainties, including those discussed in the following cautionary statements and elsewhere in this article and on this site. Although the Company may believe that its expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, the actual results that the Company may achieve may differ materially from any forward-looking statements, which reflect the opinions of the management of the Company only as of the date hereof. Additionally, please make sure to read these important disclosures.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee, or implication by or from The PRICE Futures Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited whatsoever.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information provided on this report is intended solely for informative purpose and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.