Global Sugar Markets Surge Amid Brazilian Crop Fires and Export Uncertainty in Asia

Wheat: Wheat was unchanged to lower last week, with Chicago and KC Winter Wheat a little lower and Minneapolis Spring Wheat unchanged. World prices were stable amid weather problems here in the US and around the globe, but the weekly export sales report showed poor demand and negative demand for HRW. USDA will update production at the end of the month in the Small Grains Report. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada.

Cash markets in Russia were unchanged even as production estimates have dropped to about 82 million tons and prices in Europe have been near unchanged so far this week. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

Corn: Corn closed higher last week but near the weekly lows and Oats closed slightly higher. USDA showed increased production but a bigger increase in demand for reduced ending stocks in its reports released a week ago and it remains warm and dry in the Midwest, although there are forecasts for some showers in the Midwest today. Many of the changes to demand were in the old crop data that carried through to the new crop.

Ideas are that the production data will be the biggest seen all year due to the dry August and September in most of the Midwest. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Ideas of very strong yields are still heard and harvest is just a few weeks away. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for warm and drier weather for the Midwest for the week or longer to hurt kernel fill and ear weights.

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and the products were a little lower again Friday, but Soybean Oil was higher, as warm and dry weather in the Midwest now hurt production ideas due to ideas of small beans in the pods. Ideas are that the production reports are the biggest that will be seen this year. There is concern about the dry weather seen in the Midwest since early last week that could hurt pod fill.

Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods, but this will not be seen in this report that will include mainly pod counts. Bean sizes will be measured in subsequent months. The weather is warm now and it should remain dry. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US but overall export demand is behind average. Export demand is catching up, however. Domestic demand has been strong in the US.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

Rice: Rice closed higher last week on a lack of offers in the cash market and some reports of rain in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana that could have damaged production. A hurricane came on shore a week ago in Louisiana and brought significant rain and wind to Rice lands in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas.

The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as the harvest is now over in the state. USDA showed increased production and less demand in the monthly reports.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil started the week lower and closed higher higher on ideas of weakening production and reports of improving export demand despite news that India had increased Palm Oil import taxes. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are mixed on the daily charts.

Canola was higher all last week in response to StatsCan production data and the weather in Brazil which has been very dry in central and northern areas. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures:

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

Cotton: Cotton was higher again yesterday last week in the wake of the USDA production reports that showed less production overall and continued stressful weather in the south. There are still ideas of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year.

There have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now, but crops in other areas are more suspect. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: FCOJ closed higher Friday and higher for the week on new buying from speculators and commercials. No tropical storms appeared to be threatening in the forecasts for this or next week and there is nothing in the ocean to suggest that a storm is on its way to Florida. A very active year has been forecast but has yet to come true.

The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil is hot and dry. Ideas are that demand has suffered recently with the move to extremely high prices.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

Coffee: New York and London closed sharply lower on Friday and lower for the week as the dry Brazil weather patterns remained the main focus. There were forecasts for increased precipitation for the dry fields of Brazil early this week. More reports of dry weather that could be hurting production potential had been supporting futures in both markets.

Indonesian offers are still less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

Sugar: New York and London closed higher last week on more reports of burning sugar cane crops in Brazil. One company said it had lost 10% of its sugar cane production in the fires. Sugar cane harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions for sugar cane in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are dry in Brazil.

Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong sugar cane crops. They are pushing the governments to allow exports but the governments have not agreed to allow any exports. Sugar production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

Cocoa: New York closed mixed to higher on Friday and London closed a little lower on ideas of tight supplies available to the market now as production for the next crop looks to be improved. Futures held to a trading range on the daily charts.

Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently wetter weather in Ivory Coast. Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to improve conditions in West Africa. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

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