Bitcoin: Is “Uptober” Finally Starting for BTC after a Bad Start?

The first week of October for Bitcoin (BTC) was marked by price losses as a result of the Middle East conflict. But now Bitcoin is cautiously gaining ground again, fueling hopes for an “Uptober” with sustainable gains.

Bitcoin (BTC) again reached prices of over $63,000 over the weekend, making up for the losses of the first few days of October. Investors and experts are asking themselves: Is this the starting point for a Bitcoin “Uptober”? Historically, October has been a guarantee for clear Bitcoin price gains in almost all years, with an average increase of 30 percent. If BTC history repeats itself in 2024, Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high this month.

Skeptics point to the situation in the Middle East, where Israel and neighboring countries are shooting at each other and creating fear of a major war. On the other hand, data on the US labor market on Friday was better than expected, putting Bitcoin back on track. The development of US key interest rates also plays a critical role in the BTC forecasts, with two smaller cuts in November and December on the horizon.

In general, Bitcoin benefits from falling interest rates because investments in risk classes such as BTC then become more attractive.

But for Bitcoin ETFs in the USA, which are establishing themselves as trendsetters, the first week of October was disappointing and marked by a capital outflow of almost 300 million US dollars. An “Uptober” is only realistic for Bitcoin if the BTC ETFs attract capital again – experts agree on this. Institutional investors will take the situation in the Middle East and also in Ukraine into account in their strategies.

In addition, the US election campaign has become an issue for Bitcoin; an election victory by Donald Trump would be positive for BTC because the Republican wants to build up state Bitcoin reserves. But the US presidential election does not take place until November 5th and therefore comes too late for a Bitcoin “Uptober”.

Conclusion: Bitcoin “Uptober” – Wish and Reality

The nervousness on the crypto markets surrounding the leading currency Bitcoin is unmistakable these days, economic developments and the global political situation do not indicate a clear direction. Some observers believe that Bitcoin “Uptober” could be postponed to November due to the US election this year.

It seems clear that Bitcoin is currently looking for momentum, and contradictory signals are currently flowing into the price formation. It also does not seem impossible that this October for Bitcoin will fall short of positive forecasts and that the BTC price curve influenced by daily news will continue to experience volatility instead of upswing.

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(Featured image by  Sajad Nori via Unsplash)

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