Global Cannabis Market to Reach $55.3 Billion by 2028

The global cannabis market is on a growth path, but it also faces numerous regulatory and market challenges. According to the latest Global Cannabis Report from Prohibition Partners, the industry is expected to grow from $38.6 billion in 2024 to $55.3 billion in 2028. This growth is primarily driven by legalization, increasing social acceptance, and product innovation .

However, despite optimistic forecasts, the industry still has to face problems. Differences in regulations between countries, the development of the grey zone and challenges related to access to medical cannabis are just some of the obstacles that may affect the further development of the market.

Recreational Cannabis Market – North America Dominance

The recreational cannabis sector remains the largest and fastest-growing part of the market, with projections indicating that its value will increase from $27.3 billion in 2024 to $41.3 billion in 2028 .

North America plays a key role in the global cannabis market growth:

The USA is the leader – the market value is expected to increase from $22.5 billion in 2024 to $34 billion in 2028.

Canada maintains stable sales levels, but increasing competition and regulation may affect market dynamics.

New markets in Europe, Latin America and Asia could provide additional sources of growth if countries decide to further liberalize their laws.

Medical cannabis market – Growth in Europe and Oceania

The medical cannabis segment is growing slower than the recreational market, but it is still showing positive trends. The market is expected to grow from $11.4 billion in 2024 to $14 billion in 2028.

The decreasing dominance of North America (from 84% in 2024 to 70% in 2028 ) indicates an accelerated expansion in Europe and Oceania . The most important markets in this sector are:

Germany – thanks to favorable regulatory changes, the market value could reach $1.2 billion by 2028 .

United Kingdom – rising from $255 million in 2024 to $570 million in 2028 , despite barriers to access to products.

Australia and New Zealand – The combined medical marijuana market will grow from $646 million in 2024 to over $1.3 billion in 2028.

CBD Market Stabilization – Limited Growth

Unlike recreational and medical cannabis, the CBD market is showing much slower growth dynamics. The global CBD market is expected to grow only from $6.04 billion in 2024 to $6.06 billion in 2028.

Key factors influencing the stabilization of the CBD market:

The US still accounts for 60% of global sales, but its share is expected to decline in favor of emerging markets in Europe and Asia.

Regulatory uncertainty in Europe is limiting market development – ​​many countries still do not have clear regulations regarding the sale and production of CBD.

The rise in popularity of non-CBD hemp products , such as THCV or CBG , which could become new trends in the industry.

What is driving the growth of the global cannabis market?

The dynamic growth of the cannabis industry is due to several key factors, including ongoing legalization , growing social acceptance and investment in the sector.

Legalization in Europe (Germany, Switzerland, Thailand)

The legalization of cannabis at various levels – both recreational and medical – is one of the most important drivers of market growth.

Germany – Germany has become Europe’s largest cannabis market after a historic decision to legalize marijuana for adults. However, despite the adoption of legislation, the implementation of regulated sales has been delayed by pilot distribution projects.

Switzerland – Experimental programs for the legal sale of cannabis are underway, which could set a model for other European countries.

Thailand – The first Southeast Asian country to legalize medical cannabis, is now shaping the legal framework for wider access to recreational cannabis.

Social acceptance and new product development

The changing public opinion on cannabis is significantly influencing the development of the market. More and more people see cannabis as a therapeutic alternative , rather than a recreational substance with negative effects.

The cannabis sector is attracting more and more capital investment. Companies are consolidating the market , acquiring smaller producers and distributors, which allows for better management of production and distribution.

Germany – While legalization has increased interest in medical marijuana, delays in implementing regulated points of sale have hindered the development of the recreational market.

USA – A loophole in the 2018 Farm Bill has allowed for a grey market for hemp-derived THC products . An unregulated market for semi-synthetic cannabinoids (e.g. delta-8 THC ) competes with legal products, undermining the recreational and medicinal cannabis market.

The illegal cannabis market remains one of the biggest challenges for the industry. In many countries, competition with the black market is driving down prices and squeezing profits for legal businesses .

An example is Canada , where despite five years of legalization, illegal sources still dominate marijuana sales . At the same time, Canada is increasing its exports of medical marijuana, trying to compensate for losses in the domestic market.

Telemedicine – opportunity or threat?

The rise of telemedicine has made it much easier for patients to access medical cannabis, but it has also sparked controversy over over-prescribing .

Australia, Germany, New Zealand – Telemedicine has increased the number of patients receiving prescriptions for cannabis. In Australia, the number of medicinal cannabis units sold doubled in the first half of 2024 compared to the second half of 2023.

Poland: In November 2024, the government introduced restrictions on telemedicine prescribing of marijuana , which led to a 60% drop in prescriptions in just two months . The impact of these restrictions was immediate and significant. Medical marijuana prescriptions plummeted, from 68,000 in October 2024 to 28,000 in December 2024.

Despite the dynamic growth of the global cannabis market, the industry faces challenges that could affect its long-term development. Key aspects that will define the future of the sector include regulatory adaptation, sustainable development, and further integration of telemedicine into healthcare systems.

Adaptation of regulations to new market realities

One of the most important trends in the cannabis industry will be the adjustment of regulations to changing market and social conditions . More and more countries are changing their approach to cannabis legalization, but the pace of these changes remains uneven.

Europe – Countries like Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic are testing different models for legalising recreational cannabis, which could influence future regulation across the EU.

North America – In the U.S., changes in federal law will be key, including possible decriminalization or full legalization at the national level. Canada, on the other hand, may take further steps to limit competition with the black market.

Asia and Latin America – These regions have significant growth potential, but their future depends on regulatory decisions. Thailand, for example, has moved from legalizing medical cannabis to debating potentially restricting access to recreational cannabis.

An important aspect of the adaptation of regulations will also be the standardization of hemp products, especially in the area of ​​medical cannabis and CBD. Global unification of regulations could increase consumer safety and improve the quality of products available on the market.

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(Featured image by Richard T via Unsplash)

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