Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Disruptions Reshape Global Commodities Markets

The global commodities market has been profoundly reconfigured by geopolitical tensions and the disruption of trade routes, with a direct impact on energy, agricultural products and metals.

The global commodities market is entering a new phase of tension. In its Commodity Weekly report, BKGR shows that the current shock is no longer limited to a classic rise in input prices or a simple speculative surge. Trade routes themselves are now being disrupted by persistent disturbances around the Strait of Hormuz.

For investors as well as for manufacturers, the issue is therefore no longer just the level of prices, but the ability of global trade to continue to absorb successive disruptions without causing new imbalances in the commodities sector.

Agricultural markets are being impacted by disrupted supply chains

This is particularly evident in agricultural commodities. BKGR points out that maritime blockades are affecting both fertilizer flows and grain trade, fundamentally altering market dynamics. Wheat, for example, is benefiting from a return of the risk premium, driven by concerns about the robustness of supply chains.

Corn prices remain supported by concerns about the smooth flow of access to nitrogen inputs, which are highly vulnerable to logistical disruptions. Soybeans are evolving in a different direction, more influenced by a reallocation of demand toward Brazil in export markets. In other words, agricultural prices no longer reflect solely the fundamentals of harvests or stocks, but rather the ability of each origin to remain deliverable in a more unstable environment.

Among commodities, energy remains the epicenter of tensions

The heart of the tension lies in energy. BKGR describes a market dominated by a forced reorganization of flows since the beginning of the conflict, with a near-prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz lengthening delays, increasing transport costs and tying up alternative logistics capacities.

In this context, Brent crude reached $108.3 per barrel and WTI $110.6, with weekly gains of 0.81% and 7.55% respectively, according to the commodities report’s price chart. US natural gas bucked the trend, falling 2.92% to $2.8 per MMBtu over the week, confirming that its market remains primarily driven by domestic factors.

Refining is becoming a point of vulnerability

One of the most significant findings of the report on commodities markets concerns refined products. BKGR notes that gasoline in Rotterdam is trading around $145 a barrel, while diesel exceeds $185. Crucially, the refining margin is now between $30 and $35 per barrel, a level that reflects the growing difficulty refineries are having in securing regular crude oil supplies while demand for finished products remains strong.

This means that the pressure is no longer concentrated solely on oil extraction. It extends up the entire value chain, to processing and distribution capacities. This explains the persistence of a geopolitical premium that BKGR now considers sustainable rather than temporary.

Base metals, caught between energy costs and hesitant demand, tell another story of the current shock. The global energy crisis is driving up production costs, particularly for the most energy-intensive facilities. Aluminum has thus risen to $3,468.5 per ton, showing a 15.77% increase since the beginning of the year. Lead gained 2.08% over the past week to $1,937.1 per ton.

Copper remains more hesitant, at $5.60 per pound in the price chart, a sign of still mixed industrial demand. Nickel holds steady around $17,100 per ton, while cobalt remains stable at $56,290. Here again, according to BKGR, the market no longer operates according to a single industrial cycle logic. It is now driven by two factors: energy costs and final demand, which remains selective across different segments.

The outlook for the rest of the year remains positive for several assets, according to the summary of forecasts compiled by BKGR. Aggregate estimates from foreign banks predict Brent crude at $124.1 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026 and WTI at $128.2.

Gold is expected to reach $5,104.8 per ounce and silver at $88.5, while aluminum is projected to rise to around $3,677 per ton. Conversely, corn is expected to decline gradually, while wheat and soybeans are projected to maintain their upward trend.

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