Dow Jones Rebounds as Markets Shrug Off Iran Conflict

Being Passover, and Easter week, trading this week ended on Thursday, with Friday a national holiday. It was a shortened trading week. Still, I think a key one, as last Friday in the BEV chart below, the Dow Jones closed at its current low of the move, with a BEV of -10.01% – a 10% correction. Then came this week, and the Dow Jones bounced off its BEV -10% line, closing the week half way between its BEV -5%, and -10% lines.

What happens now? If in the weeks to come, the Dow Jones once again begins shedding market valuation, and closes below its BEV 10% line, this market correction obviously has more to go, both in terms of time and points. But if in the next few weeks, the Dow Jones closes above its BEV -5% line in its BEV chart below, it has an excellent chance of trading above 50,000, and additional new all-time highs before June, or even before May arrives.

Which option is most likely? With daily volatility remaining very low, I remain short-term bullish. So, I’m expecting additional all-time highs come this summer. But should the Dow Jones begin to see multiple 2% days in the coming weeks, I will have to change my views on the stock market.

But what about Trump’s “war-of-aggression,” as some of my readers have called it, against Iran’s Islamic State? Shouldn’t that have negative implications on America’s financial markets? Seeing the Dow Jones down only to its BEV 10% line since the bombing began over a month ago, and now on the rebound, is proof so far it hasn’t.

And this “War-of-Aggression” against the Ayatollahs is receiving the full support of all the nations in the Persian Gulf, if not America’s gender-confused college students, members of Antifa, and our NATO Allies. Geeze Louise, bombing Iran has actually brought together the oil states of the Persian Gulf, and Israel. Do you understand that?

In the Middle-East, everyone hated Iran’s Ayatollah, and aren’t sorry seeing Israel, and the US Air Force bomb the Islamic Republic back into the stone age. Unless they are terrorists, who in the process are of losing their patron.

The World without Iran’s Islamic Republic, stirring up trouble everywhere it can, just may be enough to drive the Dow Jones above 60K, before 2026 turns into 2027.

Anyway, looking at the news, expecting it to assist someone to anticipating future market trends, is problematic. Looking at the market, to anticipate how current-global events will resolve themselves, is usually better. And right now, with the Dow Jones rebounding off its so far low of the correction; a BEV of -10.01%, seen last Friday, I expect, if not predict in months to come, President Trump will be greatly revered by much of the world, if not in America’s main-stream media, and those who suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS).

Let’s take a look at the Dow Jones in its daily bars below. Since the Dow Jones’ last all-time high on February 10th, it corrected to its BEV -10% line at the close of last week. Then came this week, where we saw a very nice bounce off the BEV -10% line.

I’m not someone who can see into the future. My readers’ guess of what is going to happen in the weeks and months to come, is as good, maybe better than mine. But looking at the Dow Jones at the end of this week, in its BEV chart above, and daily bar chart below, I’m feeling pretty good about the prospects for the markets, and ultimately a favorable outcome for the war on Iran’s Islamic Republic.

Here is my table listing the BEV values for the major market indexes I follow. As this week had only four trading days, we see last Friday’s data where Monday is usually posted. Last Friday had only one index in scoring position, within 5% of its last all-time high, the Dow Jones Utility Average. Everything else, except one, saw market declines from their last all-time highs, in excess of 7%. The last nine of the items were over 10% from their last all-time high.

Now we see this week’s close, with five indexes closing in scoring position, and only nine indexes down by over 7% from their last all-time highs, which included the Dow Jones at #11 in the table. For the bulls, this week was a very good week.

Look at who is Tail-End Charlie in the table? The XAU sits at #20 below. A month ago, the XAU was making new all-time highs, and now it is sitting at the bottom. Is this something to freak-out about, a reason to press the panic sell button for the gold and silver miners?

I don’t think so. Like silver, the gold and silver miners have always been very volatile, markets that see large daily swings in valuation. They just do. For instance, at this week’s close, all the indexes seen below are up by 2% or 3% from last Friday. But I note, as seen below, the XAU this week advanced by 7.22% from last Friday’s close, nothing else came close to it.

Be patient. Holding on to your gold and silver stocks will ultimately be very rewarding in 2026.

In the performance tables above, everything advanced this week, but nothing like the gains gold, silver and the XAU saw. If an investor wants to ride the bull, they must learn how to stay on, and not let the bull buck them off of its back every time the market sees a correction.

If someone is determined to find a stock group to hate, instead of the gold and silver miners, can I recommend the banking stocks, a stock group that prospered during the sub-prime mortgage bubble, but hasn’t fully recovered in the twenty years since.

During the sub-prime mortgage crash, they deflated below their BEV -65% line in the chart below. With Doctor Bernanke’s QE #1-3, they reflated their market valuations, until the March 2020 Flash Crash, where they deflated below their BEV -50% line.

But when FOMC Idiot Primate; Powell, “injected” his multi-trillion dollar, Not QE#4 into the financial system to “stabilize market valuations,” once again the banking stocks saw their market valuations inflate, until they saw their last all-time high in November 2021.

They then broke below their BEV -50% line, saw their valuation cut in half, for the second time in less than three years, when some banks in California had runs on them in May 2023. Since then, they’ve advanced, but not to a new all-time high.

Looking at the market action of this group since May 2023, it seems investment funds have for the most part have chosen to avoid them. This sounds like good investment advice to me; sell the banks, buy the gold and silver miners.

Let’s look at gold’s BEV chart below. Like the Dow Jones, gold has been correcting since February, almost breaking below its BEV -20% line. But that was last week. This week, gold has rebounded, closing the week above its BEV -15% line. No market ever goes straight up, or down, from an all-time high to a correction bottom, or from a correction bottom, to a new all-time high.

So, if gold is destined to see additional new all-time highs in the months to come, there will be down days, and down weeks between here, and there. That is just the way it is. Looking at the gold market as a bull market, gold’s BEV chart below, looks very positive for us bulls.

Daily volatility for gold continues to rise, because so far in 2026, gold continues generating days of extreme volatility, days where gold moves in excess of +/- 3% from a previous day’s close, which is bullish. As seen below, this week closed with gold’s daily volatility’s 200D M/A, at 1.20%.

Let’s look at silver’s BEV chart below. From its last all-time high of January 28th ($118.45), silver’s valuation was cut by 40% by last week. A two month decline from $118.45 to $68.19 – ouch! Give silver some time, and we’ll get that all back, and then some.

Let’s now look at the XAU’s BEV chart. The XAU closed below its BEV -30% line on March 20th, but this week closed above its BEV -20% line. A very nice rebound in the XAU.

I realize the 2026 corrections in silver, and the XAU have been significant. But they must be taken in context of the gains they’ve seen from May 2025 to early 2026, as seen below. Gold, silver and the XAU, month after month, only went up – a lot.

Here is the XAU. For decades, the XAU did nothing much. Then beginning last May, it just took off, from 175 to 475, an advance of 171% in less than a year! Currently, it is correcting this astounding advance, retreating back to 325 just two weeks ago, to then close this week at 387.15. A 19% advance in only eight trading sessions! Look, the XAU has earned not one, but two exclamation points in only one paragraph.

The story for gold and silver bullion, seen below, is the same as for the XAU above.

These tremendous gains at some point had to be corrected; halted, and then suffer a sharp reversal in trend. Which is happening right now, and is completely normal and expected. If someone has any money on the sideline, April 2026 is an opportunity to buy precious metal assets, not sell.

Gold in its step sum table below, endured a brutal selling episode, which took its 15-count from a +9, to a -9 in only sixteen trading sessions. Such a drastic decline in a 15-count is a rare market event, one that I believe has left the bears exhausted. Yet for all that, the bears failed to drive gold down below its BEV -20% line.

But those were the bad old days. Now, gold is once again seeing daily advances overwhelm daily declines. And these daily advances, are having a positive impact on the price of gold too. There is good reason to believe the bottom of the correction was hit on March 26th, and gold will see much better days, in the weeks and months to come.

On the Dow Jones side of the table, like gold, it too has seen no shortage of daily declines, though not a collapse in its 15-count, as gold saw. And after all that, as Iran’s Islamic Republic was being bombed without mercy by the United States and Israel, the bears could only get the Dow Jones to deflate to just its BEV 10% line, on March 27th.

Note too; Dow Jones daily volatility’s 200D M/A, this week closed at 0.59%, very low volatility, which is very bullish for the stock market. But realize that such low volatility, is also the hallmark of a market top.

Well, for those who remain eager to gather the scraps the stock market is reserving for its latter-day bulls, until the Dow Jones once again see its dreaded 2% days, days the Dow Jones moves +/- 2%, and more from a previous day’s close, I think you’re safe. But if you’re in the market to make money, I believe there are much better opportunities to do so in gold and silver bullion, as well as in precious metal mining.

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(Featured image by Jakub Zerdzicki via Unsplash)

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