Demographic death day.
It’s maybe not as bloody as the battlefield in Normandy but equally as devastating in the long-term.
What’s in store for Japan’s economy?
Japan’s Baby Boom started to slow down in 1942 coming into World War II and peaked—forever—in 1949 after soldiers came home from war and made a lot of babies.
It was the first major developed country to peak on a 47-year lag for spending in its economy.
The effects of that first drop-off in births during WWII hit the country after 1989. The second, bigger hit arrived in 1997, and it has felt the negative effects ever since. Look at Japan’s Spending Wave below:
Japan has been in an endless slowdown with ever-escalating QE ever since 1997.
Even when its millennial generation turned up mildly around 2003, and its stock market bottomed down 80%, it has only seen a rise back to 21,000 recently. That’s nowhere near its 39,000-peak in late 1989 (a peak we forecast, I’ll add when we saw the first Demographic D-Day coming and warned of its massive stock and real estate bubbles bursting).
Well, Japan has a second D-Day coming after 2020, right after we likely endure a global market and economic collapse in the next two or three years.
Make no mistake about it: Japan is dying
The country’s demographic decline will only get much worse again after 2020. So, any reprieve in its economy from the endless stimulus and super-low interest rates will be short-lived.
Germany is the next to collapse demographically in Europe following Greece, Portugal, and Italy. Spain comes last, but with an equally bitter decline after 2025.
South Korea peaks the last for the East Asia “Tigers” in 2018.
When I lecture in South Korea, my summary statement is that “you are Japan on a 22-year lag.” That’s the difference between their Baby Boom peaks—1949 and 1971.
Taiwan, in the chart below, also has already peaked and will see downtrends in consumer spending for decades. This started in 2008 already but will accelerate after 2023.
The greater part of the developed world has peaked
Consider Japan in late 1996, the U.S. in late 2007, most of Europe in late 2011…and now the rest of East Asia and Japan’s final demographic D-Day.
This is demographic destiny: The greatest global boom in history turns into the greatest bust. Yes! There are cycles in everything. Affluent, urban households have fewer kids and that reverses the very boom that they created.
If central bankers think they can offset these increasing demographic declines and unprecedented debt levels with “something for nothing” free money—they’re in for a nasty surprise!
DISCLAIMER: This article expresses my own ideas and opinions. Any information I have shared are from sources that I believe to be reliable and accurate. I did not receive any financial compensation in writing this post, nor do I own any shares in any company I’ve mentioned. I encourage any reader to do their own diligent research first before making any investment decisions.
Omers Acquires 49% of the Australian Subsidiary of Fotowatio
OMERS Infrastructure's global renewable energy holdings include Leeward Renewable Energy, a growth-oriented renewable energy company that owns and operates a...
Has Your Company Had an IPO Recently? Here’s How to Decide Whether to Hold or Sell Your Stock
In 2021, many companies with IPOs saw huge increases in their stock prices in a short time, adding millions in...
The Exodus of Chinese Miners Leads to New Electricity Tariffs in Russia
Many conditions make Russia ideal and attractive for mining cryptocurrencies. It is one of the countries with the highest electricity...
IRES’ Recommendations to Ensure the Economic Recovery of Morocco
In its latest strategic report, IRES believes it is important to rethink the future of Morocco's new trades, which have...
The Stock Market is a Price-Discounting Mechanism, Or Used to Be One
Dow Jones closed this week with a BEV of -0.93%. It hasn’t been this close to a new all-time high...
Biotech2 weeks ago
Canada’s Hidden Health Crisis: Is This Company the Only One Paying Attention?
Cannabis2 weeks ago
The First Bottles of Medical Cannabis Oil Delivered to Patients in Jujuy, Argentina
Cannabis1 week ago
Malta Might Soon Legalize Private Cannabis Consumption
Crypto2 weeks ago
Why NFTs Will Play a Central Role in the Film and TV Industry