Demographic death day.
It’s maybe not as bloody as the battlefield in Normandy but equally as devastating in the long-term.
What’s in store for Japan’s economy?
Japan’s Baby Boom started to slow down in 1942 coming into World War II and peaked—forever—in 1949 after soldiers came home from war and made a lot of babies.
It was the first major developed country to peak on a 47-year lag for spending in its economy.
The effects of that first drop-off in births during WWII hit the country after 1989. The second, bigger hit arrived in 1997, and it has felt the negative effects ever since. Look at Japan’s Spending Wave below:
Japan has been in an endless slowdown with ever-escalating QE ever since 1997.
Even when its millennial generation turned up mildly around 2003, and its stock market bottomed down 80%, it has only seen a rise back to 21,000 recently. That’s nowhere near its 39,000-peak in late 1989 (a peak we forecast, I’ll add when we saw the first Demographic D-Day coming and warned of its massive stock and real estate bubbles bursting).
Well, Japan has a second D-Day coming after 2020, right after we likely endure a global market and economic collapse in the next two or three years.
Make no mistake about it: Japan is dying
The country’s demographic decline will only get much worse again after 2020. So, any reprieve in its economy from the endless stimulus and super-low interest rates will be short-lived.
Germany is the next to collapse demographically in Europe following Greece, Portugal, and Italy. Spain comes last, but with an equally bitter decline after 2025.
South Korea peaks the last for the East Asia “Tigers” in 2018.
When I lecture in South Korea, my summary statement is that “you are Japan on a 22-year lag.” That’s the difference between their Baby Boom peaks—1949 and 1971.
Taiwan, in the chart below, also has already peaked and will see downtrends in consumer spending for decades. This started in 2008 already but will accelerate after 2023.
The greater part of the developed world has peaked
Consider Japan in late 1996, the U.S. in late 2007, most of Europe in late 2011…and now the rest of East Asia and Japan’s final demographic D-Day.
This is demographic destiny: The greatest global boom in history turns into the greatest bust. Yes! There are cycles in everything. Affluent, urban households have fewer kids and that reverses the very boom that they created.
If central bankers think they can offset these increasing demographic declines and unprecedented debt levels with “something for nothing” free money—they’re in for a nasty surprise!
DISCLAIMER: This article expresses my own ideas and opinions. Any information I have shared are from sources that I believe to be reliable and accurate. I did not receive any financial compensation in writing this post, nor do I own any shares in any company I’ve mentioned. I encourage any reader to do their own diligent research first before making any investment decisions.
Woman to Watch: AMD CEO Lisa Su
Israel vows $284 million to resolve diamond industry’s credit crunch
The 4 percent 10-year note yield will be a floor not a ceiling
Tips for expats to set up businesses in foreign countries
The landscape for rental cars is changing — here’s why
Cannabis acceptance grows as hemp industry leader PotNetwork Holding breaks CBD sales records
This fast-growing organic products stock already has space on Whole Foods’ shelves
Why Vapor Group Inc. might be the breakout penny stock you’ve been looking for in 2018
The CBD industry is enjoying a boost from the lifestyle sector
When you should consult your financial advisor
Promoting women’s football in Malta by UEFA projects
Euro NCAP marks its 20th anniversary with two crash tests
European Parliament’s International Trade Committee backs CETA
The American Heart Association has released four new PSAs
PwC presents 20th global CEO survey results in Switzerland
Crypto4 days ago
Could Global Blockchain Technologies change the way we invest in cryptocurrency?
Featured4 days ago
This hemp market player’s growth is about to go into overdrive
Crypto4 days ago
One of America’s oldest gold mines enters the crypto-century
Featured5 days ago
CBD stocks emerge strong in the growing cannabis industry, marijuana legalization
Featured4 days ago
The gig economy has matured — when will the business world catch up?
Business4 days ago
Why is it becoming harder for millennials to be homeowners?
Agriculture3 days ago
The benefits of supporting sustainable palm oil
Entrepreneurship2 days ago
Why being a silver entrepreneur makes a good decision post-retirement