Inflation Keeps the Executives of GSK, Novartis, and Roche Up at Night

After two courses in which the response to the pandemic boosted the sector, 2023 begins with the main European pharma companies closely following the new drug launches and the Chinese market. That is without forgetting the price increase and the challenge of adapting to the new US health reform, according to the EU Pharma&Med-tech Feedback report prepared by Credit Suisse based on interviews with the managers of a dozen of the main European pharma companies.

The main executives of the sector point to the launch of new drugs as a lever to boost themselves in the 2023 market, marked by rising prices. Sanofi is emphasizing the study of rare diseases, while GSK is seeking approval for three new drugs and continuing its HIV research.

For their part, Novo Nordisk and Ypsomed will continue to bet on their treatment against obesity. Roche, which plans for its weight-gain drug, Evrysdi, to become a bestseller by 2023 and bring in $1.2 billion in sales, will also focus on this area while continuing to research Alzheimer’s.

This year, one of the main headaches for managers in the sector will be inflation. GSK and Novartis plan to carry out a double-digit price increase due to the increase in the CPI, Ipsen assures that it is weighed down by “cost control derived from inflation”, Roche is committed to fixing the prices of products and “not participating in a downward spiral” and Hikma Pharmaceuticals expects an improvement in prices from the third quarter of the year.

Another of the most repeated words by the high positions of the European pharmaceutical companies is China. After abandoning the Covid Zero policy and reopening its borders more than a thousand days later, the Asian giant will grow 4.3% in 2023, according to the latest World Bank forecasts. Coloplast is confident that the company will return to its pre-pandemic activity in the country in 2023. AstraZeneca defines the region as “a market with many more opportunities than risks” and where the company considers itself well-positioned to capitalize on emerging innovation.

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Credit Suisse points out that the European ‘pharma’ must develop its international business and undertake acquisitions abroad

In addition, Novartis says that China remains unpredictable in the short term, but does not expect to return to double-digit growth until later, a development that they estimate will occur “in the long term.” Meanwhile, Ypsomed ranks it as its growth engine in 2023 thanks to its alliances with the local industry.

Another sensitive market for European pharma in 2023 is the United States. For now, the US health reform implemented by Biden has not excessively modified the strategies of European companies, and even Credit Suisse, the report’s producer, assures that the savings derived from the reform can encourage the purchase of new medicines, although it invites you to be alert.

To face this year of uncertainty, Idorsia is committed to raising more funds to launch new drugs, while Ibsen opts to reduce sales, general and administrative expenses and Roche places research as the great epicenter of the industry in 2023, comparing the next wave of innovation with that of the 1970s when protein-based drugs began to emerge.

For Credit Suisse, another of the main focuses of interest for the European industry is the development of international businesses and the possibility of undertaking acquisitions to complement the product portfolio. The investment bank believes that the European pharmaceutical industry will have 160,000 million dollars in the next five years to undertake investments and acquisitions. 

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(Featured image by dertrick via Pixabay)

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