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Soybeans and Soybean Oil Appears to start a New Leg Down on the Charts

Soybeans and the products closed lower last week on improved rains for central and northern Brazil and still too much rain was reported for southern Brazil. There are some forecasts for scattered showers and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and still very wet conditions in the south. Soybean Oil was lower on weakness in /Crude Oil futures that could hurt demand for biofuels.




Wheat: Wheat markets were higher again last week despite the poor demand potential for US Wheat. The weekly export sales report was bad once again last week and reports indicate that Ukraine is using Black Sea ports to load export Wheat. However, costs for transport of Ukraine Wheat are high and this has hurt any sales. 

Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that the crop is larger than originally thought.  Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business.  Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase later in the marketing year. 

Argentine conditions are reported to be good after a very dry start but showers and rains in recent weeks.  It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

Corn: Corn closed slightly higher last week as demand concerns kept futures with just small gains.  Oats were higher.  Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low over all, but the weekly export sales reports have shown good demand for the last several weeks.  The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.. 

It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and in central and northern Brazil.  Southern Brazil is still much too wet.  There was some beneficial rains reported in central and northern areas last week and a few more showers are possible this week.

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans and the products closed lower last week on improved rains for central and northern Brazil and still too much rain was reported for southern Brazil.  There are some forecasts for scattered showers and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and still very wet conditions in the south. Soybean Oil was lower on weakness in /Crude Oil futures that could hurt demand for biofuels. 

Soybeans and Soybean Oil appears to be starting a new leg down on the charts. The weekly export sales report for Soybeans was not strong after the record sales report for soybeans the previous week but sales to China continue. The trade for soybeans remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. 

Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas.  Argentina soybeans crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

Rice:  Rice closed lower and fell back into the trading range set last week.  The weekly charts show that a big gap was closed with the price action last week since the gap was filled.  Demand reports have been solid to strong for the last couple of weeks and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia ad some nontraditional buyers as well. 

The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand from Latin America.  The daily and weekly chart trends are mixed.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils:  Palm Oil was lower last week on ideas of weaker demand for Palm Oil as the private sources reported improved demand for the month so far.  Production was high in the MPOB reports but is expected to drop seasonally in future reports.  Trends are sideways on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts. 

Canola closed a little lower last week on the weather in Brazil.  Current forecasts call for very wet weather in southern Brazil and slightly wetter weather in central and northern areas this week.  The Canola crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales.  Trends are down on the daily charts in this market. 

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures:

Cotton:  Cotton closed lower and trends are mixed in this market. The export sales report was positive for prices once again last week. The US Dollar has been weaker and economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been rel positive and demand has been down. 

The weekly export sales report was strong. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market.  There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall. 

Weekly US Cotton Futures

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus:  FCOJ closed lower, and the short term trends are now down in this market.  There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently.  The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall in the forecast for this week. 

Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around.  Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. 

Weekly FCOJ Futures

Coffee:  Both markets closed lower on Friday but higher for the week.  Brazil weather remains uneven for the best crop production and there are reports of increasing Coffee availability from Vietnam although not enough to meet all of the demand just yet. 

The forecasts some northern areas to get a few showers and rains and these areas should include some Coffee production regions that have dried recently. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia have been a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing. 

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

Sugar:  New York and London closed lower last week on changes in the Brazil weather forecasts and on ,reports of greatly increased availability of Ukrainian Sugar in the EU.  Brazil weather forecasts now call for a return to wet in the south and continued showers and rains in central and northern areas this week. 

The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas.  The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south.  There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. 

Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine, and demand is still strong.  Brazil ports are very congested so shipment of Sugar has been slower. 

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures  

Cocoa:  New York closed higher last week and at new highs for the move.  London closed lower and it looks like US Dollar weakness was responsible for a large part of the move between markets.  Price trends for both markets are pointed higher.  Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. 

The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease.  Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now.  Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production. 

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures


(Featured image by pnmralex via Pixabay)

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Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. In addition to writing daily market commentaries in both English and Spanish, he offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders. He is regularly quoted by major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments are sourced by newspapers around the world and on various radio and television programs.