Doklam conflict: Increasing tensions may lead to India-China war

The tension in the Doklam plateau dispute is growing lately. This conflict may even escalate into a full-scale India-China war within one month. That is according to British-Indian economist and politician Meghnad Desai in an interview with the Indo-Asian News Service, India Today reported.

In the same interview, Desai also foresaw that the war will break in many areas and that the United States would soon join India in this clash, elaborating further that the United States and India will need each other’s support to rise against China. He even stated that if a war will break between the two countries, the situation will become difficult to manage. However, he has no estimations on the place and time that the war may start.

According to Desai, the outcome in the South China Sea territorial discord will be a factor in the resolution of the tensions in Doklam aside from the talks between India and China.

The Chinese military must not be underestimated, Desai said. He also said that this will pose a challenge to India because China’s army is said to be strong and is also knowledgeable when it comes to battling in the mountains.

Avoiding confrontations

The Economic Times reported that the day before the meeting of Ajit Doval, India’s national security adviser, and Xi Jinping, China’s president, Doval had a rendezvous with state councilor Yang Jiechi to talk about easing the tension. The Xinhua News Agency published a commentary that indicated how Doval and Yang’s meeting went.

Xinhua wrote that India and China must work on improving the mutual trust between them since they are not innately adversaries. The two must also look for a common goal to work on their relationship. Through its comments, the news agency also unveiled its desire to avoid a possible war. It also stated that an India-China war will disrupt a lot of economies outside these two nations.

Trade Wars

Besides the military war, India and China are also facing each other off in the area of trade. Per FirstPost, China is worried about India investigating its 12 products in the past six months. Then, there’s also the $1.3 billion acquisition deal between Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Group Co. and Gland Pharma, which India has blocked.

The effects of a trade war between two countries can be as damaging as a military warfare. The trade war can lead to an economic downfall, and the economies of both countries are not looking good.

This additional conflict prompts External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj to say that diplomatic talks are the ways to the resolution of the gridlock in Doklam. Swaraj also believes that the efforts of India at civil talks would pave the way to a bloodless outcome.

FirstPost also looked back on the trade between India and China. The exports of Indian products to China are unpredictable. It reached a high $18 billion in 2011-12. But it declined to $9 billion, the lowest in nine years, in 2015-16. However, the exports rose to $10.2 billion in the past financial year.

Meanwhile, the imports of Chinese products to India saw a 251-percent increase to $61.29 billion in 2016-17 from $17.48 billion 10 years ago. But India’s exports only climbed 22.5 percent within the same period.