Tunisia Holds Interest Rate as Inflation Eases, Debate Grows

Meeting on February 11th, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) decided to maintain the key interest rate unchanged at 7.00%. This decision was made after analyzing several indicators, including the evolution of the inflation rate.

According to the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT), it was necessary to continue supporting the ongoing disinflationary process in order to bring inflation back towards its long-term average. Updated data shows that inflation fell to 4.8% in January 2026, after stabilizing at 4.9% during the previous three months.

“This easing was facilitated by the slowdown in inflation of administered-priced products, which fell to 0.6% compared to 0.8% in December 2025, in a context marked by the continued freeze on most of the predominant administered prices in the consumer basket,” the regulator emphasized.

Furthermore, the same source continued, the rate of increase in fresh food prices slowed in January 2026, settling at 10.3% compared to 11.2% the previous month, thanks to an improved supply of several products in Tunisia.

However, core inflation in Tunisia, excluding fresh food and administered-price products, continued its gradual rise, climbing from a low of 4.3% in September 2025 to 4.9% in January 2026. This trend is mainly due to the easing of the downward base effect linked to the sharp contraction in domestic olive oil prices observed in 2025, the source explained.

Discrepancies in Tunisia

However, this data is not shared by the entire Tunisian public. According to economist Ridha Choundali, there is a growing gap between official inflation statistics and the reality experienced by citizens in Tunisia.

In his analysis, he argued that between 2015 and 2026, the decline in the official inflation rate from 5% to 4.8%, after reaching a peak of 10.3% in May 2023, will not translate into an improvement in the living standards of Tunisians. He also pointed out that the general consumer price index used to calculate inflation includes subsidized products, non-essential goods, and services that do not represent the spending priorities of the majority of Tunisian households.

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(Featured image by Shell Chapman via Unsplash)

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First published in Financial Afrik. A third-party contributor translated and adapted the article from the original. In case of discrepancy, the original will prevail.

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