Christmas will be celebrated in just under 50 days. For Bitcoin (BTC), however, the festive season is likely to start earlier, says prominent analyst Markus Thielen. His forecast is based on macroeconomic and historical arguments.
Read more about a possible rally in the price of Bitcoin and find the latest business news of the day with our companion app Born2Invest.
The price surge for Bitcoin (BTC) in October seems to have reached its limits for the time being, and the discussion about possible ETFs has subsided
However, with price levels stable at over $34,000, Bitcoin continues to show annual highs and BTC is therefore generally optimistic. But what would the crypto scene be if forecasts weren’t constantly being published announcing further rallies? Analyst Markus Thielen is now scoring points in this discipline with a report that refers to the start of the Christmas season. Thielen is known as a bestselling author of crypto books, so we don’t want to withhold the key points of his Advent piece from you.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price curve has risen by an average of 23% between November and December, writes Thielen. And he has no doubt that this dynamic will be repeated in 2023. In Thielen’s view, three macroeconomic events over the past week point to a further significant rise in Bitcoin prices in a “Christmas rally”:
1. The US has recently been issuing fewer long-term government bonds and instead ones for two and five years respectively. According to Thielen, this points to interest rate cuts in the US dollar, which would normally increase interest in investments in Bitcoin.
2. The US Federal Reserve, through its chairman Jerome Powell, has recently given robust indications that inflation has probably been contained. Thielen argues that this is also a signal for possible upcoming interest rate cuts and thus an incentive to shift money into risk assets such as Bitcoin.
3. The US labor market is showing weaknesses, which makes a rise in the US key interest rate even more unlikely, concludes Thielen.
Accordingly, the macroeconomic conditions speak in favor of getting into Bitcoin now or increasing BTC holdings. Thielen also points out that the Bitcoin rally in October demonstrated a willingness to buy – and as an ace up his sleeve, he presents the possible approval of a Bitcoin ETF before Christmas.
Conclusion: Sweetening Christmas with Bitcoin?
We see Bitcoin forecasts like Thielen’s as food for thought. However, one could also think of a new corona variant or gas shortages in the European winter, the highly dangerous Middle East conflict or the war in Ukraine. This would result in risks for the global economy, which would also affect Bitcoin. If we take Thielen at his word, Bitcoin should confidently crack the psychologically important USD 40,000 mark by the end of the year. However, no one should rely on such a word, but rather conduct their own Bitcoin analysis with opinions from various sources.
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First published in BLOCK-BUILDERS.DE. A third-party contributor translated and adapted the articles from the originals. In case of discrepancy, the originals will prevail.
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