Bitcoin Rally Faces Tests from Fed, ETFs, and Market Fear

Bitcoin ‘s price recently surpassed $64,000, driven by a short squeeze that triggered $165 million in liquidations. Despite this short-term rally, however, the 30-day balance remains deeply in the red, and the price is 49 percent below its all-time high of $126,080.

While the Fear and Greed Index shows a slight increase, market sentiment remains tense, particularly regarding upcoming decisions from the Federal Reserve

On July 10th, 2026, $90.4 million flowed into American spot Bitcoin ETFs, led by $86.8 million into BlackRock’s IBIT, ending seven consecutive days of outflows. The Bitcoin price jumped above $64,000 after a short squeeze triggered $165 million in liquidations, but remains 49 percent below its all-time high of $126,080 from October 2025.

The Fear and Greed Index rose from extreme fear at 15 to its current level of 31, though this doesn’t indicate genuine euphoria. The Fed’s decision on July 29 is seen as the most important catalyst of the month, while Standard Chartered is maintaining its yearly target of $100,000, which is 56 percent above its current level.

“The BTC forecast describes Bitcoin’s situation, but the real signal lies in where fresh capital flows during times of fear.”

Bitcoin forecast: Whales are buying $16.7 billion, but why is Citi lowering its price target to $82,000?

BTC jumped from $57,950 to over $64,000 in nine days, marking one of the fastest rallies of the year. In two weeks, whales bought 270,000 BTC worth $16.7 billion while the broader market panic-sold. Meanwhile, US spot ETFs experienced net outflows of $4.5 billion in June, their worst month since launch.

Citigroup lowered its price target from $112,000 to $82,000 and does not expect any new ETF inflows. Despite the recent recovery, the Fear and Greed Index shows extreme fear at 23 points, reflecting market uncertainty.

“The Bitcoin forecast hinges on whether whale purchases or ETF outflows will set the tone for the summer.”

Bitcoin price holds at $64,000: Why the next three days will decide the summer

Bitcoin’s price climbed above $64,000 on Friday and is heading for its first weekly gain in two weeks. Spot Bitcoin ETFs broke an eight-week outflow streak with $281.8 million in fresh capital, but the 30-day balance remains deeply negative at $4.73 billion. BTC is 49 percent below its all-time high of $126,080.

The Fed meets on July 28th and 29th, and prediction markets give a 70% probability of a rate hike. A breakout above $63,800 would end the downtrend, while a strong CPI report could push Bitcoin’s price back towards $58,000.

“The minutes from the last Fed meeting revealed growing inflation concerns, which could put pressure on the Bitcoin price.”

Crypto tax 2027: How Bitcoin investors can still protect their profits

The German government plans to abolish the tax break for cryptocurrencies, meaning that profits from the sale of cryptocurrencieswill be subject to taxation in the future. From 2027, crypto profits will be treated like capital gains for tax purposes, resulting in a flat withholding tax of 26.375 percent.

Investors now have the opportunity to sell their positions tax-free and re-enter immediately to benefit from current market values. This strategy could help raise the tax-deductible acquisition costs to the current market value.

“Those who make profits with crypto assets should in future contribute to financing the common good just like those who pay taxes on their wages.”

The stock market day: Bitcoin falls – a repeat of the May sell-off?

Bitcoin’s price fell 1.8 percent to $62,895, driven by renewed weakness in artificial intelligence stocks and geopolitical tensions. Analysts warn of a potential repeat of the May sell-off if the positive momentum of recent weeks subsides.

Markets are showing broader risk aversion, which could negatively impact crypto markets. A full resumption of hostilities in the Middle East would not be helpful for market sentiment.

“A late rally in cryptocurrencies last week did not continue into the new week.”

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First published in Coin Kurier. A third-party contributor translated and adapted the article from the original. In case of discrepancy, the original will prevail.

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