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Corn Prices Slip Amid Strong Crop Conditions and Favorable Weather

Corn was lower again last week on Midwest rains despite a neutral WASDE report. The report showed slightly higher beginning and ending stocks with no other changes. Strong crop conditions, active planting, normal emergence, and favorable Midwest weather support growth, while Argentina prospects remain large and oats trend lower. Petroleum prices declined amid geopolitical tensions.

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Wheat: Wheat closed higher in both markets last week as forecasts and reports for improving weather in Wheat areas continue. KC was the stronger market. The crop condition ratings are the lowest in over 30 years in HRW areas and have provided some support for prices. Crop conditions should start to show some improvement soon but were lower last week. The Winter Wheat harvest is more than 10% done. USDA showed deteriorating crop conditions this year as rains are now occurring in the central areas of the Great Plains and are forecast to continue.

Spring Wheat progress is ahead of normal, and conditions are rated as better than the previous week. Conditions are good in the US Midwest and in much of Europe, but Russia has been too cols. The weather is now featuring mostly dry conditions for parts of the Midwest along with warming temperatures. The WASDE report showed less US production based on a cut in yields. The demand side was left unchanged and ending stocks were reduced to 744 million bushels. The average Farm price was also cut back to 6.00/bu in response to the current price action.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures
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Corn: Corn was lower again last week on rains in the Midwest and despite a neutral WASDE report. The report showed a slight increase in beginning and ending stocks and no other changes. The corn crop conditions are strong in the Midwest and on news of lower petroleum prices because of the Iran war. Strong corn planting and emergence progress are reported in reports released by USDA last week and forecasts for good growing conditions continue in the Midwest.

Corn planting has been very active in all of the Midwest and is now almost done. Emergence is about normal. Condition is rated to be very good and about the same as the previous week. It looks dry this week. Temperatures in the Midwest should be turn warmer for the next week. Conditions are called good in Argentina and big corn production is expected there. Oats were a little lower and trends are down on the weekly charts.

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower and Soybean Oil was a little higher last week on reports of improved conditions in the Midwest. Rapid planting and emergence progress was shown by USDA this week and reports of good conditions continue. Condition is rated high by USDA in the latest reports, but down a stick from the previous week.

The WASDE report showed no changes from last month. Futures were also lower on the lack of news on China. Cooler temperatures are expected for the next week in the Midwest. There is talk that more Soybeans could be planted as Corn planting is more expensive. The big South American harvests are also weighing on prices.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

Rice: Rice closed lower again last week on good weather in growing areas. The WASDE report showed an uptick in yields and production for long grain with all Rice left unchanged. Long grain demand was left unchanged and the ending stocks were a little higher. The average farm price was left unchanged at 12.00/cwt for long grain and 13.50 for all Rice. USDA said that Rice planted area would be about 12% less in the coming year. Emergence is ahead of average, and condition slipped a little last week. Demand remains moderate to poor for US Rice,

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil was lower last week along with outside markets and Canola was a little higher as conditions remain hot and dry in the Prairies

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures:

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

Cotton: Cotton was lower last week but in the middle of the weekly range on improving weather for Cotton growing areas of the US. The WASDE report on TShursday showed reduced beginning and ending stocks with the rest of the supply and demand data left unchanged. Ending stocks are now estimated at 3.70 million bales.

USDA showed that squaring and emergence were running at near or above normal last week and the weather has improved with increased precipitation for all areas. USDA showed that condition is well behind year ago levels. Forecasts and reports of scattered showers in Cotton areas continue for Texas, the Delts, and the Southeast. Temperatures will be variable. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: Futures were a little higher and trends are still mixed on the daily and weekly charts. It is still dry in Florida. The weather for the next crop is dry but seasonal and some rains are now being reported. The weather is considered good for production in Mexico but it is dry in Brazil. Scattered showers are still reported in eastern Brazil but many areas are drying out seasonally.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

Coffee: New York and London were higher last week in recovery trading. The next crop is developing well in South America and Asia amid good conditions. The harvest in Brazil is a little behind last year. World production conditions are generally good. Mostly dry conditions are being reported now in Brazil. Mexico is in good condition, as Central America. Vietnam has had drier weather and conditions there are called good. Some showers are starting to appear there.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

Sugar: New York was lower and London was higher yesterday. The Iran has increased world petroleum prices and could divert demand from Sugar production to production of ethanol. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in both markets. There are good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world. Drier weather in parts of Brazil and India have been good for the harvest.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

Cocoa: New York was a little higher and London was a little lower last week. Daily trends are mixed to down in both markets, with New York showing the weaker chart pattern. A big main crop harvest has arrived in West Africa and rains have been positive for the next crop. There are still reports of in-creased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central Amer-ica. The market feels that there is less demand due to the high prices seen last year and the lack of demand is expected to continue.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

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Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. In addition to writing daily market commentaries in both English and Spanish, he offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders. He is regularly quoted by major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments are sourced by newspapers around the world and on various radio and television programs.