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Cotton Market Weakness Persists Despite Brief Rebound

Cotton prices fell to new lows last week before a modest rebound. USDA data shows crop conditions remain worse than a year ago, with mixed regional changes during the squaring phase. Scattered showers are expected across Texas, the Delta, and Southeast, with variable to warm temperatures. Overall trends remain downward on daily and weekly charts.

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Wheat: Wheat closed lower in both markets last week as the harvest continues and as harvest yield reports remain low. Forecasts and reports for improving weather in Wheat areas continue. The crop condition ratings are still among the lowest in over 30 years in HRW areas and have provided some support for prices. Crop conditions should start to show some improvement soon but were lower last week.

The Winter Wheat harvest is more than 40% done. USDA showed mostly stable crop conditions this week. Spring Wheat progress is about normal, and conditions are rated as stable from the previous week. Conditions are good in the US Midwest, but Europe has been too hot. The weather is now featuring mostly dry conditions for parts of the Midwest along with warming temperatures.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures
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Corn: Corn was a little lower last week and filled a long open chart gap around 404 July and despite big rains in parts of the Midwest that are causing flooding in some fields. It should be drier this week. The crop conditions are strong but unchanged last week in the Midwest and news of lower petroleum prices because of the Iran war continues. Forecasts for good growing conditions continue in the Midwest. Silking is starting. It looks drier this week. Temperatures in the Midwest should be cool for the next week. Oats were sharply lower and trends are still down on the weekly charts.

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher last week despite reports of improved conditions in the Midwest and no new China demand news. Soybean Oil was lower. Rapid planting and emergence progress was shown by USDA this week and reports of good conditions continue. Condition is rated high by USDA in the latest reports. Futures were also lower on the lack of news on China.

Cooler temperatures and wet weather are expected for the next week in the Midwest. There is talk that more Soybeans could be planted as Corn planting is more expensive. The big South American harvests are also weighing on prices. There is more talk of Chinese buying interest in US Soybeans this morning but there has not been any actual news.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

Rice: Rice closed higher last week and closed at new highs for the move as the market continues to recover. USDA said that Rice planted area would be about 12% less in the coming year. Emergence is about average, and condition was slightly improved from last week. Demand remains moderate to poor for US Rice and was moderate last week.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil closed lower last week despite reports of strong exports. Canola was a little higher last week as conditions remain hot and dry in the Prairies but are starting to improve and on weakness in the outside markets.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

Cotton: Cotton was lower and made new lows for the move last week before rebounding a bit. USDA showed that condition for the cotton is still well behind year ago levels, with some areas showing improvement and other areas showing deterioration with the cotton crop in thew squaring phase.

Forecasts and reports of scattered showers in Cotton areas continue for Texas, the Delts, and the Southeast. Temperatures will be variable to warm. Trends are down on the daily and weekly cotton charts.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: Futures were lower again on follow through selling and trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. It is still dry in Florida. The weather for the next crop is dry but seasonal and some rains are now being reported. The weather is considered good for production in Mexico but it is dry in Brazil. Scattered showers are still reported in eastern Brazil but many areas are drying out seasonally.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

Coffee: New York and London were higher last week in recovery trading. The harvest delays in both Brazil and Vietnam continue. The next crop is developing well in South America and Asia amid good conditions, but the rain seen lately have pushed the harvest progress behind year ago levels. World production conditions are generally good. Mostly dry conditions are being reported now in Brazil. Mexico is in good condition, as Central America. Vietnam has had some showers but producers are not selling and are waiting for a move higher in prices.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

Sugar: Both markets were higher last week. The Iran war has been paused as both sides signing a memorandum of understanding and continuing negotiations in Geneva. Trends are up on the daily charts in both markets. There are good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world. Drier weather in parts of Brazil and India have been good for the harvest.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

Cocoa: Both markets closed higher last week as New York made new highs. Daily trends are up. A big main crop harvest has arrived in West Africa and rains have been positive for the next crop. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market feels that there is less demand due to the high prices seen last year and the lack of demand is expected to continue.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

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Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. In addition to writing daily market commentaries in both English and Spanish, he offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders. He is regularly quoted by major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments are sourced by newspapers around the world and on various radio and television programs.