Cocoa Markets Face Rising Supply and Weak Demand Pressure

Wheat: Wheat closed higher in both markets last week as dry weather returned to the Great Plains and USDA made dramatic cuts to production estimates. The higher close came despite selling tied to the US China summit late last week. Ending stocks were also scaled back due to the reduced production. The data pushed futures to new highs for the move. President Trump announced he was pausing Operation Freedom to give the US and Iran a chance to work out o cease fire deal but rejected a deal with Iran over the weekend.

USDA showed deteriorating crop conditions yesterday. Conditions are too dry in much of the US Great Plains but remain wet in the US Midwest and in western Europe for best quality potential. The weather is now featuring precipitation is forecast for parts of the Midwest along with variable temperatures. It has been cold in Russia and frosts were reported. Some frosts are possible in Europe this week. The strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures
Unavaiable today

Corn: Corn was higher last week despite no new ag deals coming from the US China summit as the Iran war continues and that strait of Hormuz remains closed. President Trump announced he was pausing Operation Freedom to give the US and Iran a chance to work out o cease fire deal but rejected a deal with Iran over the weekend. President Trump was in China for talks that could have included China purchasing US Corn.

USDA released its latest supply and demand estimates on Tuesday that showed new crop supply just below 16 billion bushels. Demand was also reduced but less than supply and ending stocks were cut back to 1.857 billion bushels. Planting has been very active in all of the Midwest and is now over half done. It looks drier this week, but not completely dry. Temperatures in the Midwest should be generally warm for the next week. Conditions are called good in Argentina and big production is expected there. Oats were lower and trends are up on the daily and weekly charts.

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower last week but Soybean Meal was higher. USDA on Tuesday showed increased production potential but a sharp increase in demand. Ending stocks were cut to 310 million bushels from 340 million in the current year. The demand ideas seem aggressive to us, especially on the export side. President Trump announced he was pausing Operation Freedom to give the US and Iran a chance to work out o cease fire deal. The two sides are apparently close to signing a memorandum of understanding about a deal but new hostilities were reported between the US and Iran on Friday and Iran was also bombing the Gulf states.

President Trump was in China and hoped to make a deal with that country to buy US Soybeans. Temperatures have been cool in the Midwest but planting is ahead of normal. Warmer temperatures are expected for the next week. There is talk that more Soybeans could be planted if the weather does not improve for Corn planting soon. The big South American harvests are also weighing on prices. Big South American crops are being harvested, and ideas are that Chinese buying could be interrupted due to the Iran war and new import rules imposed by China. South American sources said that the Brazil crops are now harvested. The tariff wars between the US and other countries add to cost of US Soybeans.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

Rice: Rice closed higher again last week and at the highest level since last July in reaction to the USDA reports that were released on Tuesday. Production was cut back mostly due to reduced planted and harvested area. Yields were actually held high. Domestic and export demand were also cut back but less than production and ending stocks were estimated at 42.3 million cwt for all Rice and 28.1 million cwt for Long Grain.

Traders anticipate less production this year in the US and around the world due to low prices. USDA said that Rice planted area would be about 12% less in the coming year. Planting and emergence are ahead of average and condition is rated high. Demand remains moderate for US Rice, but export demand has been less lately.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

Cotton: Cotton was lower last week in response to the US-China summit that produced now fresh deals for any ag markets. The Iran war remains on the front page as well and is not going ell for the US. USDA released its latest supply and demand reports on Tuesday that were covering the new crop. Production was estimated at 13.3 million bales and domestic \use was unchanged at 1.6 million bales.

Export demand was higher at 12.3 million bales and ending stocks were less than the current year at 3.9 million bales. Forecasts and reports of just isolated to scattered showers in western Cotton areas continue. Conditions remain dry in major Texas growing areas but scattered to isolated showers are still forecast and also forecast for most Delta and Southeast Cotton growing areas. Temperatures will be variable. Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: Futures were lower in range trading last week but it is still dry in Florida. The weather for the next crop is dry but seasonal and some rains are now being reported. Chart trends are mixed on the daily charts. The weather is considered good for production Mexico but it is dry in Brazil. Scattered showers are still reported in eastern Brazil.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

Coffee: Both markets were lower last week. The next crop is developing in South America and Asia. There are still ideas of good supplies available. World production conditions are generally good. Mostly dry conditions are being reported now in Brazil. Mexico is in good condition, as Central America. Vietnam has had drier weather and conditions there are called good. Some showers are starting to appear there.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

Sugar: Both markets were higher last week as the Iran war drags on and the strait of Hormuz remains closed. President Trump has paused Operation Freedom to allow negotiations on a peace deal to be concluded but rejected an offer from Iran over the weekend.

The war has increased world petroleum prices and could divert demand from Sugar production to production of ethanol. Trends are up on the daily charts in both markets. There are good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world. Drier weather in parts of Brazil and India have been good for the harvest.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

Cocoa: Both markets were a little lower after trading higher early in the week. Daily and weekly trends are up in both cocoa markets. A big main cocoa crop harvest has arrived in West Africa and rains have been positive for the next crop. There are still reports of increased cocoa production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.

The market feels that there is less cocoa demand due to the high prices seen last year and the lack of demand is expected to continue. Weak cocoa demand has led to a build-up on unsold supplies in both Ivory Coast and Ghana, while the prospect of another global surplus in 2026/27 are real. Cocoa demand has fallen sharply after prices nearly tripled in 2024, prompting chocolate makers to reformulate ingredients and shrink the size of their bars.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

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(Featured image by Felicitas Fragueiro via Unsplash)

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