Cocoa Markets Ease as Supply Improves and Demand Weakens

Wheat: Chicago Wheat closed higher last week and Kansas City was lower last week on speculative long liquidation that took both markets from new weekly highs. The recent rally was tied to increased tensions in the Black Sea with Russia unable to ship anything through the Azov Sea and to the USDA reports and world weather. The selling on Friday came fraom reports that Turkey was moving to intervene and get Wheat from ports in both countries moving again.

The export sales report showed demand was at the lower end of expectations. The harvest has been interrupted by too much rain in Texas and harvest yield reports remain low The crop harvest is now about three quarters complete. Spring Wheat has been heading and is rated 53% good to excellent. Conditions are good in the US Midwest, but Europe has been too hot. The weather is now featuring scattered showers for parts of the Midwest along with moderate temperatures after a got week last week. The Great Plains should stay hot and dry except for Texas which could see more rains.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures
Unavaiable today

Corn: Corn was higher last week on buying as the rally tied to too much rain in northern Midwest growing areas and hot and dry weather in the western Midwest and in Europe The export sales report showed that demand was at the lower end of expectations. It should be warm with showers in the northern Midwest this week but other areas should stay mostly dry.

The crop conditions are strong but unchanged from last week and below aa year ago. Dough is starting and progress is ahead of normal. Temperatures in the Midwest should be cooler this week. Oats were lower last week on worries about new tariffs on Canada weakening prices but trends are up on the weekly charts and are mixed on the daily charts.

Weekly Corn Futures

Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and the products were higher last week on reports of improved conditions in the Northern Midwest but hot and dry weather in other areas and on no new China demand news. The weekly export sales report showed that demand was at the lower end of expectations Rapid blooming and setting pods progress was shown by USDA this week and reports of good conditions continue.

Condition is rated high by USDA in the latest reports but unchanged from last week and below a year ago. Warmer temperatures and wet weather in northern areas are expected for the next week in the Midwest.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

Rice: Rice closed a little lower last week on what appeared to be speculative selling and weaker export sales. USDA said that Rice planted and harvested area is estimated to be sharply lower this year, leading to much lower production and tighter ending stocks estimates. Emergence is about average, and condition has deteriorated from last week. Demand remains moderate to poor for US Rice and was moderate to poor last week.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

Cotton: Cotton was higher last week on weather concerns but gave back the best gains of the day as speculative profit taking was felt. Geopolitical problems in the Middle East are stronger The export sales report was weak. USDA showed that conditions are still well behind year ago levels and showed deterioration with the crop in the squaring and setting bolls phase.

Progress is about average, with bolls starting to be set and squaring proceeding at a normal pace. Forecasts and reports of scattered showers in Cotton areas continue for the Delts, and the Southeast. Temperatures will be warm. Trends are mixed on the daily and the weekly charts.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: Futures were higher last week and trends are still mixed on the daily charts but could be topping out for the short term. It is still dry in Florida. The weather for the next crop is dry but seasonal and some rains are now being reported. The weather is considered good for production in Mexico but it is dry in Brazil.

Scattered showers are still reported in eastern Brazil but many areas are drying out seasonally. The Trump administration has exempted oranges and orange juice from the new round of tariffs announced on Brazil.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

Coffee: New York and London were lower last week. COOXUPE said that Coffee in Brazil is about 47% harvested from 59% last year. The harvest delays in Brazil continue but coffee is more and more available. The next crop is developing well in South America amid scattered to isolated showers. Indonesia is now about 80% harvested.

Asian conditions are called good. Other world production conditions are generally good. Mostly dry conditions are being reported in Brazil. Mexico is in good condition, but Central America is dry.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

Sugar: New York and London were lower last week, with London the weaker market. The Iran war made bio fuels more valuable again, but Sugar has been slow to respond to rallies in petroleum products. Drought in Europe and Brail are a major concern. The hot and dry weather is threatening Sugarbeets production. There have been some rains in center-south Brazil causing some harvest delas, but generally dry weather is now forecast.

The Iran war has been paused as both sides signing a memorandum of understanding and continuing negotiations in Geneva. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in both markets. There are good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world. Drier weather in parts of Brazil and India has been good for the harvest.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

Cocoa: Both markets were a little lower last week on cocoa demand concerns. Daily and weekly trends are mixed to down. A big main cocoa crop harvest has arrived in West Africa and rains have been positive for the next crop.

There are still reports of increased cocoa production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market feels that there is less cocoa demand due to the high prices seen last year and the lack of cocoa demand is expected to continue.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

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(Featured image by Felicitas Fragueiro via Unsplash)

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