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What will Trump’s immigration fight cost you?

Just like investors tend to buy high and sell low, politicians tend to react to most major issues (such as immigration) by doing the wrong thing at the right time.

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It’s no secret that almost all developed countries, and China in the emerging world, are slowing in the workforce and demographic growth—many outright declining.  Five of the six smaller ones (which include Australia and New Zealand) that aren’t slowing down have one thing in common: strong and high-quality immigration.

You would think, with a clearly predictable further slowing in demographic trends, that the developed countries would be competing for the best global immigrants. But most are restricting or fighting against it just as we need them the most. The U.S. fought against immigration going into the Great Depression. It’s doing it again now…

Immigration is slowing down…

The global migrant population is already slowing and peaked in 2005-10. Immigration into the U.S. peaked in 2001. And with the lowest number of births recorded in the U.S. since 1987, this spells trouble.

Look at this chart.

©Harry Dent

This should be a long-term trend as emigration slows after countries reach $8,000 GDP per capita PPP (purchasing power adjusted). The Factfulness book I so highly recommend also shows that life expectancy sees most of its acceleration by $8,000 GDP per capita. It doesn’t take a lot for people to have a decent and longer life and have less motivation to migrate, which is both costly and disruptive.

A recent Gallup poll showed that over 750 million people globally would emigrate permanently to another country if they could. This next chart shows where the highest percentages are by major global regions.

©Harry Dent

Not surprisingly, the highest, at 33 percent, came from the poorest region, Sub-Saharan Africa; followed by Latin America, non-EU Europe, and the Middle East/North Africa.

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The surprise

The surprise here is that the wealthier EU is the highest in the developed world, at a whopping 21 percent with North America second at 14 percent.

Note that numbers in North America have risen dramatically from 10 percent to 14 percent since Trump got elected… go figure!

The very highest percentage countries, where most people would emigrate if they could, are the poorest ones, including Haiti, El Salvador, Honduras, the Congo, and Nigeria. However, they’re not necessarily the immigrants we would want to go after. To have a positive impact on our economy, we need more of the educated and ambitious immigrants.

That means we should encourage immigrants from China, Southeast Asia, India, the EU, East Europe, Puerto Rico, Chile, Argentina, and Mexico. Unfortunately, these countries are wealthier than their peers and will have fewer and fewer such candidates looking to move to America in the future.

Attract immigrants or die

But we’ve got to figure something out, especially with the severity of the Baby Bust we’re experiencing. It’s simple: Attract immigrants or slowly die.

More importantly, attract skilled immigrants, and make the path to America clear and legal. We should emulate countries like Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Singapore, who have effective immigration policies.

So, write to your congressperson. Send them this article. If we all say something, maybe someone in government will hear and begin to do the right thing at the right time. Our country—and your future wealth—depends on it.

(Featured image by DepositPhotos)

DISCLAIMER: This article expresses my own ideas and opinions. Any information I have shared are from sources that I believe to be reliable and accurate. I did not receive any financial compensation for writing this post, nor do I own any shares in any company I’ve mentioned. I encourage any reader to do their own diligent research first before making any investment decisions.

Harry S. Dent Jr. studied economics in college in the 1970s, receiving his MBA from Harvard Business School, where he was a Baker Scholar and was elected to the Century Club for leadership excellence. Harry grew to find the study of economics vague and inconclusive and became so disillusioned by the state of his chosen profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning new science of finance which married economic research and market research. Identifying and studying demographic trends, business cycles, consumers’ purchasing power and many other trends empowered Harry to forecast economic and market changes. Over the last three decades, he’s spoken to executives, financial advisors and investors around the world. He’s appeared on “Good Morning America,” PBS, CNBC and CNN/FN. He’s been featured in Barron’s, Investor’s Business Daily, Entrepreneur, Fortune, Success, U.S. News and World Report, Business Week, The Wall Street Journal, American Demographics and Omni. He is a regular guest on Fox Business’s “America’s Nightly Scorecard.” Harry has also written numerous best-selling books over the years, such as The Great Boom Ahead, The Roaring 2000s, the Roaring 2000s Investors and The Demographic Cliff.In his most recent book The Sale of a Lifetime: How the Great Bubble Burst of 2017 Can Make You Rich (2016), Harry looks at the upcoming economic crisis and reveals how it could be the single greatest chance to build wealth we’ll ever see and how we can capitalize on such a unique and historical opportunity. He explains how many of the richest Americans in history have used this same kind of opportunity to quickly accumulate incredible amounts of money, in a short period of time.

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