The lull in the price of Bitcoin has now been continuing for 2-3 months after digital gold had initially recovered well from the slump in the wake of the Corona crisis. The volatility is currently at a very low level that has not been seen since November 2018. As unspectacular as the current consolidation phase is, on the other hand, it must be acknowledged that the price of Bitcoin has nevertheless been up 29% since the beginning of the year.
Thus, BTC has so far outperformed many other asset classes by far. But can there possibly be more? The well-known crypto analyst PlanB now calculated on Twitter that the current BTC price, measured by the correlation of the asset with the S&P 500 share index, should actually be a proud $25,000.
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Bitcoin rate on the way to $25,000?
The crypto-analyst PlanB is probably one of the most famous figures in the entire Bitcoin Space. This is mainly due to its mathematically very sound Bitcoin price models, such as the Stock-to-Flow model or the Stock-to-Flow Cross-Asset model. The former predicts a price of $100,000 for the next few years, while the latter even predicts a price of $288,000 in the period from 2020 to 2024.
Recently, however, PlanB has made headlines with a new kind of statement on the price of Bitcoin. He repeatedly refers to the correlation between the American S&P 500 share index and the BTC, which according to him is “correlated and co-integrated.”
In several posts in recent weeks, he has calculated the possible price of Bitcoin on the basis of the correlation, using the current status of the S&P 500. On Tuesday, July 21st, PlanB tweeted again about Bitcoin’s price and announced a possible price of $25.000 for the digital gold.
He wrote about this: “S&P500 and Bitcoin have been correlated and co-integrated over the last 10 years. Through the S&P implied BTC price: $25K … interesting times lie ahead!”
Probability for the price of Bitcoin to reach $20,000 by year end is at 4%
Whether the forecast for a Bitcoin price of $25,000 will materialize in the short to medium term remains to be seen, of course. However, PlanB’s statements are particularly interesting in connection with the latest findings of the cryptanalysis company Skew.
Many market participants consider it very unlikely that the price of Bitcoin will see new highs this year. A tweet from the company said that due to the massive drop in BTC volatility, “the options market has revalued the probability of Bitcoin reaching more than $20,000 by year-end to 4%.
Regardless of the question and disagreement over when the price of Bitcoin will be exactly where, the long-term potential of BTC as a digital asset remains enormous and the reasons for possible price increases are many and varied.
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