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The Fed is likely to increase their forecast for the Fed Funds Rate to 5% in 2023. However, this could be a risky move as it...
This fiscal and monetary tightening will cause nominal GDP to grow much slower and will lead to S&P 500 EPS to contract starting in Q4 of...
Given the extent of asset bubbles and the level of debt in the economy, depression is a real possibility. And an equity market collapse from these...
We often hear that the American consumer and corporations are in much better shape due to the amount of deleveraging that has taken place. Hence, they...
Peak inflation and lower borrowing costs are great news for equities in the medium and longer term. Nevertheless, buying stocks into the teeth of a recession...
The last time the Fed hiked the Fed Funds Rates above 2.25% was Sept 27th 2018. It was also doing just $45 billion per month of...
The intractable inflation seen in the June CPI print isn’t all about some aberrant spike in food and energy prices. Core CPI (ex food and energy)...
Asset prices are falling and the economy is shrinking at the same time inflation is at a record high. This means for the first time in...
The bear market should continue until a sufficient amount of disinflation is manifest, which can then give Chair Powell the economic and political cover to turn...
The economy is so weak right now that it only took one, 25 bp rate hike to invert the 10-2 yield spread. This leaves just about...