Moroccan Bond Market Shows Mixed Signals as Primary Eases and Secondary Pressures Persist

The bond market in Morocco is evolving in a mixed configuration. On the one hand, the Treasury continues to raise funds cautiously on the primary market, benefiting from targeted demand and slightly lower interest rates on certain maturities. On the other hand, the secondary bond market remains under pressure, particularly for intermediate and long-term maturities, reflecting a degree of investor selectivity in a context of persistent bank liquidity shortages.

According to BMCE Capital Global Research (BKGR), the average bank liquidity deficit widened slightly between June 11th and 18th, 2026, reaching -156.6 billion dirhams, an increase of 0.47%. This development occurred while Bank Al-Maghrib’s 7-day advances decreased by 11.6 billion dirhams, to 43.8 billion dirhams. The bond market, however, remains stable, with the weighted average interbank rate holding steady at 2.25%.

Bond Market: A stable money market, despite liquidity pressures

The stability of the TMP (Tunisian Monetary Market Rate) confirms the market’s anchoring around Bank Al-Maghrib’s key interest rate. Meanwhile, the MONIA (Monetary International Exchange Rate) rose to 2.234% on June 16th, a movement reflecting slight pressure on very short-term liquidity conditions. Treasury deposits also increased over the week, with a maximum daily outstanding amount of 33.4 billion dirhams, compared to 23.9 billion the previous week, according to BKGR.

This situation on the bond market is keeping investors cautious. Liquidity remains heavily managed by the central bank, but its structural deficiencies continue to weigh on market arbitrage. Looking ahead, BKGR anticipates an increase in the pace of intervention by Bank Al-Maghrib, with 7-day advances expected to reach 53.9 billion dirhams, compared to 43.8 billion previously.

The Treasury raises little, but on favorable terms

On the primary bond market for Treasury bills, issuance remained limited. At the last auction, the Treasury raised 860 million dirhams, representing only 39% of the 2.2 billion dirhams offered. Subscriptions accepted were for 52-week and 2-year maturities. This low level of issuance does not necessarily reflect a financing constraint, but rather selective management of the yield curve.

The cut-off rates were 2.2728% for the 52-week maturity and 2.4304% for the 2-year maturity. These levels led to a relaxation of primary rates, with respective decreases of 0.9 basis points and 1.8 basis points. The Treasury thus appears to be favoring segments where demand remains sufficiently strong, while avoiding forcing issuance on less attractive maturities.

The secondary market remains under pressure

The contrast is more visible in the secondary bond market. According to BKGR, the upward trend in rates continues, with significant adjustments across several maturities. The increase reached 8.60 basis points for the 2-year bond, 6.41 basis points for the 10-year bond, 6.18 basis points for the 52-week bond, and 5.45 basis points for the 15-year bond.

Secondary rates thus stand at 2.23% for the 13-week bond, 2.34% for the 52-week bond, 2.51% for the 2-year bond, 2.92% for the 5-year bond, 3.34% for the 10-year bond, 3.67% for the 15-year bond, and 4.11% for the 30-year bond.

This increase reflects a more demanding bond market in terms of pricing, in an environment where investors are factoring in liquidity levels, the upcoming meeting of the Bank Al-Maghrib Council, and expectations of a monetary policy status quo.

In the short term, the bond market is expected to maintain a nuanced trajectory. BKGR anticipates continued easing in the primary market, but more pronounced pressure in the secondary market. In this context, caution should continue to guide investors, while the Treasury may maintain a flexible strategy, favoring the most sought-after maturities.

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First published in LES ECO.ma. A third-party contributor translated and adapted the article from the original. In case of discrepancy, the original will prevail.

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